Despite a double blow, Trump is not eliminated

Guido Fieldsforeign editor

First the disappointment at the midterm elections and now the recommendation for investigations: Donald Trump (76) has to take two major setbacks in a short time. Yet the former US president is far from a knockout, says Claudia Brühwiler (40), US expert at the University of St. Gallen.

The Commission of Inquiry recommended on Monday that criminal investigations should be launched against the ex-president and confidants for storming the US Capitol. Brühwiler: “It is only a recommendation to the Justice Department and does not automatically mean that Trump will be reported – and certainly not that he will be convicted.”

A political decision

A criminal investigation into a former president, who will also challenge the sitting president in the next election, is a political tightrope, says the US expert. In fact, the Attorney General’s decision will therefore have to be more political than legal. Brühwiler: “We must assume that a complaint will only be filed if there is a conviction that the case will be won.”

The scope of the possibility of investigations and conviction is completely open. Brühwiler: “Anyone who hears progressive-liberal voices gets the impression that a conviction is practically certain – moderates and conservatives, on the other hand, are extremely sceptical.”

Republicans speak of revenge

Brühwiler is therefore still not ruling out Trump’s comeback as president — even though enthusiasm in his own ranks has waned since the midterm elections and less than half of Republican voters are currently in favor of a renewed candidacy.

Brühwiler explains, “At the same time, those same voters are skeptical of the congressional committee’s investigations, which are dismissed as partisan and one-sided or simply seen as unnecessary and an act of revenge.” Trump announced his candidacy for the 2024 election in November.

The commission of inquiry, made up of seven Democrats and two Republicans, has charged Trump with four counts of criminal insurrection, disrupting a session of Congress, fraud against the United States and witness tampering. The decision to recommend was unanimous.

criticism from within

The rare crime of rioting is the most serious. It is fulfilled under United States law by inciting or participating in rebellion against state authority or law. This is punishable by a fine or imprisonment for up to ten years or both. So if Trump is convicted of sedition, he would no longer be allowed to hold political office.

Even within his own party there is harsh criticism. Trump’s former Attorney General William Barr (72) and White House officials have charged him before the committee.

And Liz Cheney, 56, formerly the third-highest-ranking Republican in the House of Representatives, said Monday: “A man who behaves like this in a time like this should never again hold office in our country. He is not suitable for the office.”