Twelve years of the Arab Spring: on the failure of a revolution Expert: China should only call Covid-19 ‘corona cold’.

Twelve years ago, a groundbreaking turning point for the Arab world began: on December 17, 2010, 26-year-old greengrocer Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in the Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid. Previously, his mobile sales booth and other work equipment had been taken from him by the police – allegedly due to a lack of permits.

After Bouazizi was beaten at the police station and his complaint was not followed up at the city hall or the governor’s office, he set himself on fire.

As a result, protests broke out across Tunisia against the arbitrariness of the police, the passivity and corruption of political representatives and the repression of civilians. Millions of people in Tunisia took part in the protests, which quickly turned against the entire regime of then-President Ben Ali.

That was the beginning of the so-called Arab Spring.

After all, the protests swept the entire region and led to the resignation of some authoritarian rulers.

And now: The Tunisian government is holding parliamentary elections on the anniversary of the self-immolation.

Protests led to success

The Arab Spring began in Tunisia. He also achieved success there: the authoritarian ruler Ben Ali abdicated. However, developments did not take a positive turn everywhere. In some Arab countries, the demonstrations followed major political instability: Libya, Syria and Yemen are still the scene of bloody civil wars.

But first: people in Tunisia took to the streets. They demanded an end to oppression, greater social justice, freedom, and soon the overthrow of the president. Thomas Hasel of the Center for Middle Eastern and North African Politics at the Free University of Berlin says in an interview with Watson:

According to the expert, religion played a subordinate role, even though it seemed different in countries such as Syria or Egypt.

Tunisia’s then-president Ben Ali fled the country on January 14. But abuses of power, corruption and suppression of civil liberties also occurred in other Arab countries. There, too, authoritarian rulers ruled for decades and poverty and unemployment prevailed. Especially among young people. The Tunisian spark flew and the protests spread to almost all Arab countries.

Unrest culminated in civil wars in some countries

There were further protests in Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen – as well as in Morocco and Bahrain. “All of these countries were ruled by authoritarian regimes or monarchies,” says Hasel. The protests had several causes: “But they were mainly against oppression by authoritarian governments.”

The expert continues: “Especially in Syria, Libya and Bahrain, the demonstrations, which quickly led to unrest and in some countries to civil wars, also had a strong ethnic and religious component.”

In Morocco, however, the protest quickly leveled off. Because the head of state is still very popular with many people there, “but also because King Mohamed reacted quickly with political reforms,” ​​says Hasel. Neighboring Algeria remained largely calm in 2011. The country had already gone through a bloody civil war in the 1990s. The majority of people would have feared a repeat of the events. But in 2011 people also protested against the government in the capital Algiers.

In Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, there was hardly a trace of protest. They are very wealthy and can provide good social conditions for a large number of citizens. This prevented protests from breaking out – the component of economic hardship was missing in these countries.

But together, in most of these countries, there was and is a “lack of democracy and political freedom” due to the authoritarian political system, as expert Hasel says. This often leads to abuse of power by representatives of the state and institutions such as the police, secret service and judiciary. Corruption and nepotism are also often added, which reinforce social inequality and injustice. “Combined with social hardship, unemployment and poverty, this results in an explosive mixture.”

Situation in the countries very different

The different developments in the various Arab countries are mainly related to the respective prosperity or poverty. “But also with additional ethno-religious conflicts,” says the expert. In Syria, for example, the religious minority of the Alawites, where President Bashar al-Assad comes from, has held a position of supremacy over the Sunni and Kurdish population for decades.

In Bahrain, the protests were heavily influenced by the Shia population and directed against the ruling Sunni ruling family.

But what about the Arab Spring? Except for this brief moment of hope for more freedom and social justice. The traces of decades of oppression, says Hasel, will not disappear any time soon. Authoritarian regimes too.

In the country of origin, Tunisia, democratization had begun, “but was largely reversed by President Kais Saied, elected in 2019”. A constitutional revision strengthened the president’s power again. However, participation in the constitutional referendum in July 2022 was low. “At the moment there is a certain apathy,” says the expert.

So.

It is now twelve years ago that greengrocer Bouazizi set himself on fire. And Tunisia elects parliament. But is that what Bouazizi wanted?

Hardly likely.

Hasel says: “Since the sitting president has had the constitution changed so that parliament has very limited powers, no positive impulse can be expected from the elections.” The office of president in Tunisia is endowed with great power, as it was before the Arab Spring. The scientist does not expect a large turnout.

The memory is alive, but there are no protests

Nevertheless, “The Arab Spring is still remembered.” And “that the citizens of a country can have great power to overthrow a regime if they join forces.” The expert adds:

So the Arab Spring failed? extinct? At the moment, according to Hasel, it largely looks like it. The situation has not improved in most countries. Rather even significantly worse.

Among the younger generation, the idea of ​​a quick improvement of their situation is scarce. Even if the circumstances and reasons for the protests are still there.

Protests such as those that began in Tunisia 12 years ago would erupt again in the future “if the regimes in the countries are unable to provide a social and economic revival”. But that’s not what Hazel thinks it looks like—apart from the oil and gas-rich states of the Persian Gulf.