Nearly 15 million deaths more than expected

Excess mortality – this is when more people die than can be expected according to statistics. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) in the journal Nature, this was the case worldwide in 2020 and 2021. According to the analysis, the pandemic caused 13.3 to 16.6 million deaths worldwide by the end of 2021. The median of 14.9 million is almost triple the number of officially recorded Covid deaths.

However, the figures should be treated with caution, the WHO writes itself. “For almost half of all countries, due to the weak data situation, it is not possible to determine the excess mortality with a high degree of certainty,” the report said.

In Switzerland and Germany, the figures are open and currently show a clear picture. In our northern neighbours, the excess mortality was clearly visible last October. The average number of deaths from previous years was exceeded by 19 percent. According to the Federal Bureau of Statistics, another 15,000 people died.

Infectious diseases and summer heat

Something similar can also be observed in Switzerland. “From mid-June to early September 2022, the mortality rate for people over 65 was above the expected value,” reports the Federal Statistical Office. “From the beginning of October, the number of deaths in the group of over-65s has again exceeded the long-term expectation value.” There has been no notable excess mortality among young people in recent years. How can this be explained?

There is no clear answer. Experts suspect that there are several reasons that have led to the high excess mortality, reports “Spiegel”. Other infectious diseases that were rampant earlier than usual are suspected. At the same time, the health system was overloaded by Corona and there was a shortage of staff in the hospitals.

The “Süddeutsche Zeitung” speculated in a data analysis that tumors were detected too late. The fear of Covid-19 has stopped people from going to the doctor for a check-up.

excess mortality continues

The WHO also assumes that Corona is indirectly behind the excess mortality. “In addition to what is directly attributable to Corona, the pandemic has also caused extensive collateral damage, resulting in significant loss of livelihoods and lives,” the report said. As for summer, the heat could be responsible for more deaths. Especially for older people, a high temperature can be dangerous and even fatal.

Incidentally, the excess mortality will continue until 2022. Switzerland also has a noticeable excess mortality here: so far 4,500 more people have died than expected over the age of 65. The hot summer is also suspected here. But Urs Karrer, chief physician of the medical outpatient clinic of the canton hospital in Winterthur, suspects that Corona is still the decisive factor. “Epidemiologically, there is a clear temporal relationship between waves of strong virus activity followed by waves of excess mortality among the over-65s,” Karrer said in November. (abbot)