Military intelligence warns: Russian war is far from over China: No police stations abroad – but “gas stations”

The losses are enormous: Russia alone is said to have lost 1,400 tanks since the attack on Ukraine on February 24. This has just been announced by the Estonian military intelligence service. Nevertheless, he warns against underestimating the Russian military: “As sad as it is, there doesn’t seem to be a quick end to this war,” EEA broadcaster intelligence chief Margo Grosberg was quoted as saying.

During a media briefing on Friday, Grosberg gave further figures on the Kremlin’s stocks of weapons: According to this, Russia still has about 9,000 tanks in repair bases and in storage. These are “not the most modern and newer, but still tanks,” Grosberg said. Since one in three can be made roadworthy again, the country would still have at least 3,000 tanks available. “This very, very large number poses a threat not only to Ukraine, but to all of Russia’s neighbors.”

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“There are still many, many”

The situation with artillery pieces is similar. Of these, Russia has lost about 500 units, which corresponds to only ten percent of systems ready for use. This does not include the weapons that Russia still has stockpiled: “These are not the most modern either, but there are still very, very many of them,” says Grosberg.

Ammunition for these weapons won’t run out any time soon either: “We estimate Russia had about 17 million ammunition units before the war, of which 10 million were used,” Grosberg said. Grosberg’s secret service estimates that since the Kremlin increased production capacity, Russia could continue to wage war for at least another year.

According to Estonian estimates, there is still no shortage of troops. Grosberg estimates Russia has lost about 100,000 soldiers in Ukraine so far, including wounded and missing. However, this number will be more than offset by the mobilization of 300,000 new soldiers, even if they are not as well trained and equipped as the troops at the start of the war.

“If we look at the long-term perspective and the numbers, we can say that despite the terrible losses, Russia’s military capabilities are not progressing anywhere,” Grosberg said.

“Let’s Prepare for a Long War”

The figures and assessments of the Estonian secret service partly do not correspond with information from other secret services. According to the latest information from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Russia has lost nearly 3,000 tanks and nearly 2,000 artillery pieces since February 24 – significantly more than Estonia has stated. However, Ukraine has a propagandistic interest in these figures and may claim that Russian losses are greater than they actually are.

Estonia’s assessment that Russia can still make 3,000 operational tanks out of 9,000 in storage is also disputed. Finnish general Pekka Toveri recently told The Economist that while Russia has large quantities of Soviet-era weapons, most of them are “happy junk”: two-thirds of these stockpiles are stored in the open, and most of the vehicles have already been looted. for spare parts.

British military expert and journalist Shashank Joshi wrote on Twitter, he is skeptical of Estonia’s statements: “But it is interesting that Estonia’s secret service, which knows the Russian army quite well, believes that a large part of these stored tanks can still be used.” Military expert Carlo Masala finds Estonia’s statements credible: “Let’s prepare for a long war”, he wrote on Twitter.