Poland’s rise to military power: “Preparing for war” Protesters attack airport: Riots continue in Peru

For Mariusz Blaszczak it is a success. On this day, the Minister of Defense in the port of Gdynia wants to make it clear to anyone who has doubts about Poland that “wanting means being able”. For his country, this means: “We want peace, so let’s prepare for war.”

New howitzers and tanks from South Korea are lined up behind Błaszczak. They are part of the largest arms deal the Asian country has ever made.

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Ten new tanks and 24 howitzers may sound like a relatively large number to German ears. During the ten months of the Ukraine war, the German government, together with the Netherlands, transferred a manageable total of 14 Panzerhaubitzen 2000 to Ukraine. Modernization has also come to a standstill among its own soldiers – despite a special fund worth 100 billion and the ‘turning point’ speech by Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD).

In Berlin, for example, the quarrel about the purchase of 35 F-35 fighter jets continues and an “ammunition top” must clarify with which the German soldiers should fire their weapons in the future.

It is very different in Poland, where the modernization of its own armed forces is in full swing. At the end of development, the country could become the decisive military power in Central Europe – and overtake Germany.

law hurry

“The Poles are currently using their military potential, while we Germans are reducing it,” said Christian Mölling of the German Association for Foreign Policy (DGAP) in an interview with t-online. The government, led by the nationalist PiS party, is selling the measures needed to protect against Russia. But the way Poland’s rearmament is proceeding also reflects the strained relationship with its German neighbours.

Shortly after the start of Russia’s offensive war against Ukraine in March, Warsaw had already set the course for a new course: the PiS-led government had swiftly passed a law designed to massively expand Poland’s armed forces. At the signing, Polish President Andrzej Duda said Poland must be able to defend itself against Russia’s “greedy, imperial” ambitions.

According to NATO information, Poland can currently mobilize a total of 122,000 soldiers. For comparison: the Bundeswehr has a total of 188,000. The United States has the largest NATO military with 1.3 million men and women in uniform, followed by Turkey with 447,000.

In the future, the Polish government wants more: in 2035, the army should count a total of 300,000 soldiers. To this end, Warsaw has also accelerated the training process: since April, volunteers can complete basic training in 28 days, followed by 11 months of specialist training.

In addition, the state is increasing its already high defense spending: while Germany struggles to meet even NATO’s so-called two percent target, Poland aims to invest three percent of its gross domestic product in defense in the coming year, and in the medium term it should even be five percent. The country would then be the NATO state with relatively the highest defense expenditure.

Big deals with the US and South Korea

However, Poland is already making large purchases on the arms market. In addition to the deals with South Korea, the government has also placed large orders with US companies: the Polish army will receive more than 1,300 tanks and 600 howitzers and dozens of fighter jets in the coming years. There are also 24 combat drones from Turkey or 20 Himars multiple rocket launchers. The purchase of hundreds more missile launchers from the United States and South Korea is also under discussion.

Part of the arms deliveries is to replenish depleted stocks: some 250 American Abrams tanks are to replace the more than 200 Soviet-era T-72 tanks that Poland handed over to Ukraine in the spring. The planned “ring swap” with Berlin, according to which Germany should replace the old tanks, has cracked for the time being.

“Motion of no confidence against Germany”

“This rearmament is also a vote of no confidence in Germany,” says armaments expert Christian Mölling. Poland actually wanted to buy more main battle tanks from Germany before the war. However, no corresponding offer was made to the country at the time. “Berlin’s hesitation, passivity puts the value of the alliance with Germany in serious doubt. And we are not the only ones saying that,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki complained in “Spiegel”. He also hears complaints from other European heads of government.

But that does not seem to remain the case: the United States would also become increasingly annoyed with the federal government, the more reliable ally of the American government is now in Warsaw. “Poland has become our most important partner in continental Europe,” the news portal “Politico” recently quoted a senior US representative as saying.

Political doubts about Poland

Expert Mölling sees it the same way: Washington is “terribly annoyed” because Scholz and his ministers have repeatedly used the United States as an argumentative shield to explain their own inaction in supporting Ukraine: “Washington is constantly the excuse that the federal government can’t do something.”

But it is not certain that the new arms partnership will bring Washington and Warsaw even closer together: “Militarily, there is certainly a tendency towards Poland,” says Christian Mölling. But it is not that simple, because there is a second perspective to consider: “The question remains whether Poland is politically capable of cooperation.”

For years, the PiS government has been criticized for attacking the Polish rule of law and exerting greater political control over the judiciary and media. The EU has been blocking billions in corona aid for months because Brussels sees blatant shortcomings in the Polish legal system.

PiS faces difficult elections

So far, the Polish government has shown little understanding of the issue: the influential PiS party leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, is currently lashing out particularly hard at Germany and the EU. The representative of the German government for Poland even accused the PiS of “anti-German” tendencies.

Disputes also broke out between neighbors over whether Germany should supply Poland with Patriot air defense systems. It was only after talking back and forth that an agreement was reached. The harsh PiS rhetoric could also be related to the fact that the party hopes for more votes in next year’s parliamentary elections. Current surveys no longer see the PiS in first place.

“Another government would make similar decisions militarily. The criticism of Germany and the EU would be similar in content, but probably not so sharply worded,” Kai-Olaf Lang of the Science and Politics Foundation told t-online. The fact that the United States leans more on Poland for this very reason also has to do with the shared border with Ukraine, which is currently fighting for its existence as a state.

However, both Lang and Christian Mölling consider it unlikely that Poland will become more important to the US than Germany in the long run. Politically, Mölling still sees greater proximity between Washington and Berlin. And militarily, turning away is not so easy, says Kai-Olaf Lang – if only because of Ramstein, the largest US air base outside the United States: “Ramstein is in Germany. It is not so easy to build elsewhere,” says Lang.