Next Russian attack probably only a matter of time Son of Osama bin Laden: “I was one of my father’s victims”

The UK Defense Ministry made it clear: “Russia’s attacks continue to cause blackouts, leading to indiscriminate, widespread humanitarian suffering in Ukraine,” the ministry said in its daily Ukraine briefing on Thursday morning. In fact, attacks on critical infrastructure have become an elementary part of Russia’s military strategy in the fight against Ukraine. The aim is to hit the energy supply with long-range missiles “to demoralize the population and ultimately force the government to capitulate”.

Fittingly, just a few hours after the briefing was released from Kherson, another blackout due to Russian bombing was reported. However, this attack could only be a bitter taste of what could threaten Ukraine in the coming days: satellite images from November 28 by the companies Maxar and Planet Labs, available for “Spiegel”, show that at the Russian military airport in Engels-2 there numerous strategic bombers are deployed. So is the next big Russian bombing just a matter of time?

“People in Ukraine are preparing every day for the next big airstrike,” Gustav Gressel of the European Council on Foreign Relations told t-online. Most recently, in mid-November, there was a massive rocket attack on land, temporarily cutting off electricity for ten million people. According to Ukrainian sources, 100 rockets were fired. The military expert assumes that given the falling temperatures, the most likely target at the moment is the Ukrainian heating structure.

Would the bombers seen on the satellite images be suitable for this? Frank Sauer of the Bundeswehr University in Munich thinks that is possible. “The number of aircraft at the base is unusually high,” Sauer told Online. In addition to the Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers, there are also transport aircraft, fuel and containers for ammunition on display. “Given this background, it is indeed plausible that an attack is imminent.”

Nuclear missiles without warhead in service

The aircraft and location of the military airport are appropriate for the current situation for a number of reasons. Due to the now strengthened air defense in Ukraine, it has become more risky for the Russian air force to penetrate Ukrainian airspace. However, the two bombers from the Russian manufacturer Tupolev are capable of hitting Ukraine with long-range missiles without leaving Russian airspace. The airport, 1,100 kilometers east of Kiev, is the right location for this: “Engels-2 is Russia’s main bomber base and is particularly suitable for attacking Ukraine,” says Gustav Gressel.

In addition, the Tu-95 Ch-55 can fire missiles with nuclear weapons. Although the use of nuclear weapons is currently unlikely, it fits the current situation: recently there have been repeated reports that Putin’s army is running out of conventional missiles. For this reason, the Russian soldiers are said to have already started firing Ch-55 missiles without nuclear warheads. Photos of suspected wreckage were already online a few days ago. The British Ministry of Defense also took up the relevant information last weekend.

Will there be more major air raids in the future? Gustav Gressel believes that Russian missile strikes will be less in the near future, but more massive: “The Russians are now trying to launch as many missiles as possible at once to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defense systems.”

In the medium term, Frank Sauer believes, due to its bottlenecks, Vladimir Putin’s army could increasingly rely on ammunition from Iran: Kamikazed drones of the Shahed-136 type have already been deployed against the civilian population and critical infrastructure: “It is also to It is feared that Russia will buy Iran’s short- and medium-range missiles.” Both the drones and the missiles would have the advantage that they can also be deployed without aircraft.