China’s society and economy in a trap Western politicians condemn the escalation in China and are concerned

The protest is creative: demonstrators hold up white sheets of paper, blank. ‘We don’t want PCR tests, we want freedom,’ they shout. “Break the lock.” People are taking to the streets in China for the first time since 1989. The latest cause was a house fire in Urumqi that killed at least ten people.

The demonstrations are against the authorities and the government’s arbitrary zero-Covid policy, which is plaguing personal lives. Not only are protests in the capital Beijing, but also in other megacities such as Shanghai, Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan and Nanjing. The citizens’ uprising is a symbol that China’s ruling Communist Party (CP) is just reaching its limits.

The state-mandated strict zero-Covid strategy had worked for a long time. The price was (and still is) China’s isolation from the rest of the world, for which its citizens were largely free to move. But with the highly contagious omicron variant of the virus, this strategy no longer works.

Not prepared for a massive outbreak

The virus is spreading in China’s cities. While the rest of the world is opening up to immune protection thanks to extensive vaccination campaigns or mass infections, both are insufficient or non-existent in China: only 40 percent of people over the age of 80 are adequately vaccinated, and at the same time China’s healthcare system is underserved in intensive care beds. The country would not be able to contain a massive outbreak.

Chinese authorities are responding to Omikron as usual – blocking apartment buildings and neighborhoods, mass testing and enforced quarantine. But after nearly three grueling years of the pandemic, many people don’t want that anymore. The discontent of the population is great, which is why the protests are now also aimed directly at those who caused the strategy: against the CP, which has been in power since 1949, and its chairman Xi Jinping.

In relation to the total population, the number of people who take to the streets is negligible. But that doesn’t mean much for a society tightly controlled by the ruling Communist Party. Anyone demonstrating against politics in China should fear harassment, including all sorts of harms, including violent harassment and imprisonment. There is also no freedom of speech and no freedom of the press, the KP state tries to control everything.

This control has even increased dramatically during the pandemic: control systems via smartphone apps have been introduced and refined, and the digital health code is also a monitoring tool. What has remained is the completely analog form of control: agents of the secret police like to pop up everywhere. The citizens usually recognize them quickly and that is probably what the state wants – it increases the pressure to behave docilely.

The secret police was also present at the protests. After all, demonstrations against politics always affect the legitimacy of the CP. The party has gained legitimacy for decades due to China’s massive GDP growth. This was possible because after the cultural revolution under Mao Zedong, private affairs were allowed again. And that the merchants and entrepreneurs knew how to use their freedom skillfully and successfully. China’s economic success began in the southeastern coastal provinces in the 1980s, when Deng Xiaoping unleashed market forces there – the birth of the export boom.

Many things have been tried in special economic zones opened especially for the new capitalism experiment. Another pillar of China’s growth has been state-launched infrastructure programs. Bridges, railways, airports and highways were built. Huge amounts of housing were also built, in which citizens invest their savings. But the real estate market is collapsing in slow motion, but the effects are still noticeable. Major real estate developers have gambled away their investors’ money. This is fueling anger and there have already been protests from affected citizens.

Growth and the freedom to create personal wealth have long been a successful way to legitimize the power of the CP. The agreement was: the citizens had to remain politically silent, in return they were allowed to do business freely and were largely left alone by the party. This is different today: new infrastructure, for example, is no longer really necessary. For this, private companies must now accept a KP cell in their business operations, which can also have a say in company policy when in doubt.

Now on

Above all, the zero-Covid strategy has caused GDP growth to collapse: officially from around eight percent in 2021 to a forecast of 3.2 percent in 2022. The lockdowns affect everyone, including global supply chains become disrupted as a result. Officially, 20 percent of the young population is now unemployed, and the real number is probably twice as high. And to this day there is no specific domestic consumption in China, people prefer to save.

So insisting on zero-Covid is a gigantic mistake by the party leadership. China’s society and economy are trapped — in debt to an authoritarian ruling elite that is unwilling or unable to recognize its mistakes. Another symptom of the CP control system jamming.

This article was first published on Zeit Online. Watson may have changed the headings and subheadings. Here’s the original.