China Expert: “Party Elites Might Try To Depose Xi Jinping” Ten People Killed: Buffalo Gunman Pleads Guilty

Mr. Carlson, is there a right to demonstrate in China?
brian carlson: No definitely not. China is a one-party state and the Communist Party (CCP) has great control over domestic political expression. We saw in Tiananmen Square in 1989 what happens when protests go beyond what the CCP is willing to tolerate.

So the current demonstrations remain within the limits of what the party is willing to tolerate?
Recently there was a demo in Shanghai. The next day the road was completely blocked. Videos and photos of the protests will be immediately removed from Chinese social media apps. There are also first videos showing the violence against the demonstrators. The protests will not be tolerated now. The question is more: how long before we move to tougher measures?

Compared to China’s total population, very few people are demonstrating so far.
But in many different cities. There is Xinjiang, where 10 people died trapped in a burning apartment. The authorities deny this, but the people are angry. There were further protests in Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu and Wuhan. You’re right, there were only a few hundred people on the street at a time. That is nothing compared to the 1.4 billion inhabitants. Still, I think the protests are a serious sign of fatigue and dissatisfaction with the government’s zero-Covid strategy.

How do these protest groups organize in China’s surveillance state?
You have to get creative. The government is very good at stopping actions organized online. In Shanghai, the demonstration was intended as a memorial service for the burnt people from Xinjiang, nothing more. And in the beginning it was. Suddenly it became a protest. It is of course also possible to bypass the Chinese surveillance device via a VPN.

Is the CCP wrong with its covid policies?
Yes absolutely. Sure, you could keep the death toll lower than elsewhere. But only at a huge cost to the economy and people’s livelihoods and quality of life. The West is just learning to live with the virus. China still believes they can eradicate the virus. However, the experience of the past three years has shown that this is not possible.

Does China really still believe in their Zero Covid policy?
I don’t know if they still think their strategy is the right one. But it would certainly be difficult to change course now.

Because otherwise President Xi Jinping would lose face?
Precisely. Xi has just entered his third term in office and fills the top of the party with loyalists. Now there is something of a one-man rule in China. To change course now would be an admission of personal error. Xi can’t blame anyone but himself, he can’t allow that. For the past three years, he has claimed that China’s covid policies are more effective than those of Western countries.

Recent protests from scammed homeowners have been resolved with concessions. Isn’t Xi Jinping pragmatic enough to adapt this time too?
It must be him. Social dissatisfaction is increasing. China needs to find a way out of this mess relatively unscathed. Many thought Covid measures would be eased after the 20th Party Congress in October. But then the number of cases increased. Now Xi will have to wait for public pressure to subside. Otherwise he looks weak.

Is the image of the Communist Party as a stable, self-contained regime beginning to crack?
The party is firmly in control. And they have a powerful security apparatus that is very good at blocking burgeoning protests. Of course, there are many domestic problems in China. And I think the party is very concerned about that. But I think it is unlikely that the party will lose power in the near future. Xi Jinping, on the other hand, could become vulnerable. The party elites could try to depose Xi if popular discontent becomes too great.

So are there power struggles within the party?
Xi has made many enemies over the past decade. He ran an anti-corruption campaign targeting many of his rivals. He sidelined people from other political groups and promoted them in his group. So there are differences of opinion within the party, there is no doubt about that.

There is also no concrete plan for Xi’s successor.
No, apparently he just wants to stay in office for life.
That can work, but Xi will also die one day. Then a power struggle ensues within the party. However, so far it seems that nothing can touch Xi.

So you don’t think the protests could become dangerous for Xi?
Yes, when they get bigger. But they are still manageable.

What is your forecast for the coming months?
I think the protests are signs of real discontent. But I think it is unlikely that this will change the government’s course. The discontent will continue to grow, the protests will increase. The government will have to become more radical. We could see some ugly scenes in the coming months. If the protests reach a similar scale as in 1989, I wouldn’t be surprised if the government hits back as hard as it did back then.