Why Poland especially hopes for Putin’s defeat

Chiara SchlenzEditor News

Things are not looking good for the Russians at the moment. Ukraine pushes back Putin’s troops. Instead of conquering, the soldiers must now defend. At the same time, Eastern European and Baltic states in particular are looking to Ukraine and hoping for a victory over the Russians – especially Poland. A defeat by Russia could permanently change the balance of power.

With a Russian defeat, Poland would practically be rid of its worst enemy – a number of things could also turn out in the country’s favor within the EU. Ukraine’s success would also represent a historic opportunity for the region to move out of peripheral status and counterbalance the major western EU member states.

The accession of Ukraine to the EU also plays a major role for Kai-Olaf Lang (55), a scientist in the EU/Europe research group of the Science and Politics Foundation, as he explains in an interview with Blick. “If Ukraine were to join the EU at some point, the EU’s center of gravity would shift further east. Poland and what is now East Central Europe would emerge from their peripheral position.

Power shift to the east very possible

A company that requires one condition above all: economic strength. According to Guido Cozzi (58), professor of macroeconomics at the University of St. Gallen, this condition has already been met. “Poland has grown significantly over the past two decades,” he tells Blick. The generous Polish support for Ukraine is also a driving force.

“By consolidating the brotherhood with Ukraine, Poland can grow synergistically with the country’s post-war recovery. While Poland was the poorer partner of victorious Germany in the past, it appears as a leading and exemplary country in its relationship with Ukraine.”

According to Cozzi, a shift of the EU’s center of power to the east is quite possible. Poland could still very well expand and Ukraine will probably also have access to a huge stream of free funds that the EU has promised to rebuild all of its buildings. If reconstruction is successful, the influence of the eastern part of the EU could rise to a level comparable to that of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain.

More power for Poland means more power for the US

While that sounds good, Lang also has concerns. “Many member states are skeptical of enlargement and are calling for internal structural reforms in the EU ahead of future accessions.” Only Poland has always supported Ukraine’s accession to the EU. Also because it was hoped that this would give them strategic depth vis-à-vis Russia. “On the other hand, Poland is one of the countries that does not want EU reforms towards additional majority decisions or ‘deepening’ European integration.”

If the Eastern European countries become more powerful, the United States in particular should be satisfied. “Poland has become our most important partner in mainland Europe,” said a senior US military official in Europe, noting the critical role Poland has played in supporting Ukraine and strengthening NATO defenses in the Baltic Sea. states, as “Politico” recently reported.

It is no coincidence that Poland is held in such high esteem by the US. Because according to Lang, the interests of many countries in Central and Eastern Europe overlap with those of the US. “The war gave new impetus to relations between Poland and other countries in the region and the United States. From the point of view of these countries, the United States, with its military potential, is ultimately the only effective guarantor of their security.”

And it will continue to be so in the future: “We currently see that the US commitment to the security of Europe is still indispensable. European states and the EU are making slow progress in improving their security policies and military capabilities.”