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Russian troops have withdrawn from the city of Kherson in southern Ukraine. Now they seem to be concentrating their forces on the east of the country. As the British Ministry of Defense announced based on intelligence findings, the small Ukrainian town of Svatove in the Luhansk region is currently at the center of Russian efforts to defend territory against the Ukrainians.

The Ukrainian army had previously launched a counter-offensive on the front between Svatove and Kreminna. Both sides have reported heavy fighting in the region in recent days.

Secret services: Russia’s most vulnerable point

The Ukrainian leadership apparently hopes for quick success there. “With Russia’s southwestern front line along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River now easier to defend, the Svatove sector is now likely to be a more vulnerable operational flank for Russian forces.” informed the British secret services.

A conquest would be a success for the Ukrainians and a major strategic loss for Russia. Because Swatowe is an important hub. A Ukrainian advance would “have the advantage of interrupting an important supply line to the Russian fortifications to the east (Donbass)”. writes the British military expert Mike Martin on Twitter.

Poorly trained reservists at the front

The British secret services assume that the Russian leadership will respond to this. “As a major population center in the Luhansk region, the Russian leadership will most likely consider maintaining control of Svatove a political priority,” the report said.

Russia is already expanding its defensive positions there and elsewhere on the front, according to the report. However, these are mainly occupied by poorly trained reservists. “However, the commanders are likely to struggle with the military realities of maintaining credible defenses while trying to fund offensive operations further south in Donetsk,” the ministry said. “Both the defensive and offensive capabilities of Russian forces continue to be hampered by a serious shortage of ammunition and qualified personnel.”

Problems also on the Ukrainian side

However, Russian military bloggers also report problems on the Ukrainian side. Weather conditions delayed the Ukrainian counter-offensive. A Ukrainian soldier also speaks about this in the video report of Radio Free Europe. “If it rains, the drones can’t work,” he says.

This severely limits the Ukrainians’ ability to act. Using the drones, they identify targets such as ammunition depots or attack positions, which they then fire on. In recent days, the soldier says, the weather has gotten worse and worse. (t-online/dpa)