Russian ruler Vladimir Putin probably imagined the situation differently. The entry of Russian troops into Ukraine on February 24 was aimed at a rapid takeover of the country. But it turned out differently. More than eight months after the outbreak of the war, Putin even suffers a major defeat. Ukrainian flags are flying again in the recently annexed region of Kherson.
And: Russia’s main ally, the People’s Republic of China, condemns the Kremlin’s nuclear threats ahead of the G20 summit. Ironically along with the US. US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a three-hour meeting in Bali beforehand, during which the two economic powerhouses drew closer.
A clear signal for Putin. The People’s Republic of China thus shows the limits of Russian-Chinese relations. This is how political economist and Russia connoisseur Sebastian Hoppe interprets it. At the Freie Universität Berlin, the scientist conducts research into Russian-Chinese relations, among other things.
In an interview with Watson, Hoppe provides insight into the current situation in Russia. And explains why Russia apparently did itself a disservice with the war in Ukraine.
That means Xi Jinping’s positioning for Russia
Russia’s dependence on China has grown since the beginning of the war of aggression in Ukraine. The international sanctions have made the People’s Republic of China Russia’s most important trading partner. Moscow is increasingly dependent on Chinese products and spare parts, which the country can no longer obtain from the West.
However, this interaction between the two states is not going the way Russia would have liked, says political economist Sebastian Hoppe: “Since the beginning of the war, some Chinese companies have been reluctant.”
Money comes first: Sino-Russian relations have boundaries
Hoppe describes the pre-war partnership between Russia and China as “defensive”. Both sides would have benefited.
The countries “used the partnership to protect themselves against the interference of foreign powers from the West and NATO.” Security interests are therefore a link in the partnership. In return, both countries accepted minor conflicts. But: “A large-scale war in Europe is not in China’s interest. Europe is still the largest market for the Chinese,” says Hoppe.
From a political point of view, Xi Jinping’s condemnation of the Russian nuclear threat has no direct impact on the partnership. Yet China is sending a clear signal: “The summit shows China’s unwillingness to cut ties with the United States and Western partners,” said Hoppe. On the contrary. The US and the People’s Republic are trying to mend their broken relationship. A slap in the face to Putin, who has always boasted at home that he supports the People’s Republic of China in its fight against the West.
That is why China wants to end the war in Ukraine
There is an increasing discrepancy in the foreign policies of the two countries. This is also evident from the G20 summit meeting in Bali. “Xi Jinping is here, Vladimir Putin is not,” says Hoppe.
The Chinese president continues to use and rely on international forums and relationships.
That is also the reason why the People’s Republic has rhetorically not clearly sided with Russia. “Since the beginning of the war, China has shown a clear list with Russia, but the country formulated its positions so vaguely that they can be interpreted in either direction,” Hoppe explains.
Russia’s war in Ukraine brings more disadvantages to the PRC
The People’s Republic wants to protect its own economy: “What Russia has done by entering Ukraine is offensive and poses all kinds of risks to China. The changing discourse in the West is also not in China’s interest.”
Chinese rhetoric remains ambivalent in many ways. After all, the war in Ukraine has also brought benefits to the People’s Republic, for example more room for maneuver to lower export prices from Russia and thus obtain cheap natural gas, for example. Overall, however, the cons outweigh the cons. Certainly with regard to the European sales market. “That is why China has an interest in a quick end to the war,” Hoppe confirms.
That is why Putin did himself no favors by going to war
The situation in Ukraine could increasingly become a problem for Russia, not only at the international but also at the national level. The country is currently facing a number of setbacks. The Kremlin is currently unable to find a solution for the reconquest of the Kherson region annexed by Russia. Ukrainian flags are currently flying there, although Russia has already incorporated the area into its own constitution. Particularly bitter: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj visited what Putin sees as a Russian region.
This raises the question of how this message is received in one’s own country. Hoppe clarifies: Estimating public support for current events is difficult because there are no reliable opinion polls from the country. “But my impression is that while the majority of people in Russia don’t support the war, they do support Putin.”
The war has reached the Russian people
This is largely due to communication within the country. hoppe says:
Moreover, there are no opposition networks in the country. It’s hard to get different opinions.
Nevertheless: In the meantime the war has arrived in Russia.
The situation in Ukraine is also an issue on Russian state television. “It was surprising to me to see that the state media also reported on setbacks. Defeats are noted and the causes are asked,’ says Hoppe. The information trickles down to the public. For example via the internet or soldiers telling their family and friends what is happening at the front. However, there has not yet been a decisive change in public opinion about Putin.
Economic elites can break the “Putin system”.
The relationship of some members of the Russian business elite and oligarchs with the Kremlin ruler and government is more difficult. Because according to Hoppe, the offensive war in Ukraine is an expensive adventure. Many Russians have lost an incredible amount.
For this reason, members of the business elite should have no interest in prolonging the war. According to the expert, especially in the event of a wave of Russian backlash in Ukraine, they might wonder whether Putin can continue to be the figure coordinating affairs in the country.
If Putin falls, then quickly
However, according to the expert, there are currently no signs of major efforts being made on this side to get rid of Putin. The reason: in political systems in which power is so strongly centered, there are many people whose position and status depend on it. The incentives to overthrow the government are relatively small.
However, that can change quickly. “Pyramids of domination that are so strongly centered can collapse very quickly,” says Hoppe.
Soource :Watson
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
