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Actually, the retreat had been a long time coming. The Russian army found itself in a dire situation in the Ukrainian province of Kherson – partially locked up. Thousands of Russian soldiers must stabilize the front line in the south. they had their backs to the Dnieper and the supply bridges across the river were repeatedly and successfully attacked by Ukrainian artillery. No way out and no prospect of rapid reinforcements.

According to Western security services, Russian generals have been asking for permission for weeks to withdraw to the eastern bank of the Dnieper to set up a new defense line there. But what was deemed militarily sensible was rejected by the Kremlin for political reasons. Western intelligence circles reported weeks ago that Vladimir Putin personally ordered the defense of the city of Kherson. But now the Russian president’s house of cards seems to be collapsing with a bang.

Russia plans to withdraw from all occupied areas west of the Dnieper, Russia’s defense ministry said on Wednesday. Of course, this could be Putin’s stratagem. But the damage to Russian war propaganda is already catastrophic. The announcement alone amounts to an oath of disclosure: the confession that one of the largest cities captured since February cannot be held militarily.

This threatens the Kremlin chief with further military humiliation by the Ukrainian armed forces. Pressure on Putin is mounting.

Symbolic slap in the face of the Russian president

After all, it’s about Kherson. It was the only regional capital the Russian military has been able to occupy since Putin’s invasion order began. A strategically important city that supplies water to Russian-occupied Crimea via the North Crimean Canal. Here were protests against the occupiers, with Russian soldiers opening fire on demonstrators. But even after the crackdown, calm did not return to the occupied part of Kherson.

Ukrainian underground fighters were active behind enemy lines. There have been repeated kidnappings, murders and bombings of members of the Russian-appointed government. Most recently, Deputy Chief Executive Kirill Stremoussov died, reportedly in a traffic accident, according to Russian occupation authorities. Also from a military point of view, the battle for the city of Kherson was proclaimed as a battle that could decide the war in the propaganda of both sides.

The withdrawal of the Russian army, should it come true, would initially be a major symbolic defeat that was actually not intended at all. It was not until the end of September that the Russian president annexed the entire Kherson region of Ukraine. From a Russian perspective you could say: Putin is withdrawing Russian soldiers from Russia. A disgrace.

According to the Russian army, Kherson should actually be defended to the last man. The population was evacuated so that they could be taken out of the fighting area, Putin said. Houses were occupied, defenses set up. Suddenly the insight? In any case, some caution is recommended.

Because one thing is certain: there is very little information leaking out of Kherson, and the war fog there is extremely unfathomable. The announcement of the withdrawal could be a war tactic designed to delay an offensive by Ukraine. Or Russia might want to persuade Ukraine to launch a hasty attack. This is all possible, but unlikely.

Ukrainian government detects fall

Ukraine is already very suspicious of announcements from Moscow. It is currently unclear whether Ukrainian forces will be able to recapture an area of ​​more than 4,000 square kilometers in the coming days. Zelenskyi adviser Mykhailo Podoliak warns that it is too early to speak of a “liberation of Kherson”. “We do not see any Russian troop movements that would corroborate the statements of the Russian military leadership,” Podoliak told t-online. The situation on the ground will show whether the Russian forces are actually withdrawing or whether this is just a trap to get the Ukrainian forces to safety before heavy urban warfare begins.

According to Podoljak, the opposite is currently happening: “The Russian army is currently strengthening its forces in the region, including with a significant number of mobilized soldiers, including heavy weapons.” As Kremlin propaganda talks about a withdrawal, Russian troops are strengthening defenses on the left bank of the Dnieper to prevent Ukraine from advancing further, Zelenskyi’s adviser warns.

“Kherson will certainly be liberated,” Podoljak said, but the situation should be judged on the basis of real circumstances and intelligence, not Russian televised announcements. “We will not talk about the liberation of Kherson until the Ukrainian flag flies over the city again.”

«Start with the deduction»

Fierce fighting continues to threaten Kherson. There are still tens of thousands of Russian soldiers in the region and there are apparently no signs of preparations for a withdrawal. Ukraine knows that even after a Russian withdrawal, their troops would have to cross the Dnipro if they wanted to liberate other parts of the south.

But what plan does Putin have? From a strategic point of view, Kherson would be difficult to defend militarily for Moscow in the winter. The Kremlin had also moved into another deadlock as Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stated in the course of the withdrawal that the measure was intended to protect its own soldiers. If Russia does send its soldiers into a bloody urban warfare in Kherson, it would be a disaster for combat morale.

Pressure on the Russian president will continue to mount after this disclosure oath. Russian nationalists, who have been calling for the use of weapons of mass destruction for months, will feel justified by their army’s next defeat. The Russian leadership will feel compelled to show military strength. Massive attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure could again take place, such as after the Ukrainian attack on the Crimean Bridge.

Putin, on the other hand, is trying to keep himself out of the line of fire. He sent Shoigu and the Russian commander in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin, to announce the withdrawal. Possibly to present them as scapegoats so that nothing of the ignominious defeat sticks to the president. “Start with the withdrawal of the soldiers,” the Russian defense minister said at his press conference. This is an order that many people in Ukraine are waiting for in light of this war – not just in Kherson, but across the country.