The time will come soon: we are eight billion people in this world Man deliberately hits wedding guests in Spain – four dead

The question is whether the world population will actually break the eight billion mark on November 15. However, since it is impossible to keep track of hundreds of thousands of births and deaths per day, the United Nations has chosen the middle of the month as the Humanity Milestone. 8,000,000,000 – so many people have never lived on Earth. But an end to the rise is in sight.

How did humanity get to this point? According to current knowledge, Homo sapiens appeared about 300,000 years ago. Over the past millennia, the number of people has steadily increased – apart from phases of major pandemics such as the plague. Gradually the increase accelerated and by the year 0 about 190 million people were living.

With longer life expectancy, the curve steepened significantly from around the year 1700 – and the first billion was probably reached shortly after 1800. It took less than 100 years to go from a world population of two billion in 1928 to eight billion today. And the growth from seven to eight billion took only 11 years.

Growth reflects positive things

Cause for celebration – or cause for concern? For the head of the United Nations Population Fund, Natalia Kanem, the current figure contains many positives. After all, it reflects a fundamental leap: “8 billion people, that is an important milestone for humanity. And it’s the combination of longer life expectancy, lower maternal and child mortality and increasingly effective health systems,” Kanem said recently at a UN expert meeting.

According to Kanem, the fact that many people are concerned about overpopulation is unfounded: “I am here to say clearly that the sheer number of human lives is no reason to be afraid.” According to the UNO, there are certainly sufficient resources – it is about a correct and fair distribution.

Regarding global warming, Frank Swiaczny of the Federal Institute for Population Research adds, “More people doesn’t necessarily mean a bigger carbon footprint.” Nearly half of global CO₂ emissions are caused by the top 10 percent of the world’s population with the highest income, while the contribution of the poorest half is negligible.

Eternal growth? On the contrary

“World population growth is slowing,” explains UN expert Rachel Snow. The highest annual growth rate was achieved in 1964 at 2.2 percent per year. “But now we’re growing at less than 1 percent a year.” According to the latest studies, this trend is set to continue – until the world’s population is expected to stop growing from 2080. Then the number of people would be 10.4 billion.

Which regions of the world are developing how?

Special attention is paid to developments in Asian countries with particularly large numbers of people. China, as the – still – most populous country on earth, faces enormous challenges as the birth rate in the country of 1.4 billion people is low after the one-child policy. Experts justify this by saying that many people who have grown up as only children consider it normal to have only one child.

India, with more than 1.3 billion people, has a higher birth rate and is likely to overtake China next year. But also in India, growth is slowing – which is related to the better availability of contraceptives.

Strongest increase in Africa

In no other part of the world will populations increase as much in the near future as in parts of Africa. “According to current forecasts, Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to grow significantly. Much of the future growth of the world’s population will take place in this region and in some countries in Asia,” said expert Swiaczny.

According to the German Foundation for the World Population, approximately 1.4 billion people currently live in Africa. By 2050, the population will increase to about 2.5 billion. By the end of the century there will be about three times as many people living in Africa as there are today, nearly 4.3 billion – about 40 percent of the world’s population.

Rich countries depend on migration

High-income countries such as Japan, on the other hand, are currently sliding into a negative population trend. Countries such as Germany would therefore have to rely on migration for a stable growth rate. The UN advises in a report: “All countries, whether experiencing a net influx or outflow of migrants, should take steps to facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration.”

And the next milestone? Of course, there will be another commotion with nine and ten billion people on Earth. However, the United Nations does not expect a real turning point until the year 2100. Experts think the world’s population will steadily decline from about then. However, as with weather forecasts, the predictions for population development become more uncertain as time passes. (sda/dpa)