Who will succeed Vladimir Putin?

Vladimir Putin (70) has been president for 23 years. A Russia without him at the top? Hard to imagine for many – and yet not entirely inconceivable. Ulrich Schmid, 56, a Russia expert at the University of St. Gallen, told Blick in September that the Kremlin was looking for a “soft exit scenario” for Putin. And not only that: “It may happen that Putin no longer participates in the elections of 2024.”

As “Focus” now writes, this possibility is becoming more and more real. More and more decision-makers and asset owners are losing faith in their long-standing president as many realize Putin has failed. The Prognosis: From a political point of view, Russia has gone through its most turbulent times since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Who will succeed the old Kremlin chief?

“In the 23 years of his rule, Putin has never found himself in such a situation,” said Russian political scientist Kirill Rogov. The current Kremlin head has always been a “strong leader” – no matter what critical situation he faced. But the war on Ukraine that began on February 24 made Putin untenable for the Russian political elite — at least since the annexation of Ukraine’s four oblasts, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson.

Political adviser Tatyana Stanovaya explains in “Focus”: “Until September, the Russian elites had decided to support Putin for pragmatic reasons. But now events have progressed so far that they probably only have a choice between different loss scenarios.” A defeat in the war can even lead to the collapse of the regime.

According to political expert Abbas Galyamov, who himself has spent some time in Russia, the first attempts to dethrone Putin will come in the coming months. In addition, according to the portal, the search for possible successors within the system is being intensified. For example, Galyamov’s list of potential candidates includes the son of Security Secretary Nikolai Patrushev (71), Dmitry Patrushev (45). Or the deputy head of the Kremlin Sergei Kiriyenko (60), the mayor of Moscow Sergei Sobyanin (64) or Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin (56).

Navalny sees black for Russia

It is hoped that the latter in particular can act as a moderate negotiator in the West, says Galyamnov. But imprisoned Kremlin critic and activist Alexei Navalny, 46, immediately dashed those hopes in a Washington Post article. The hope that “the succession of Putin by another member of his elite will fundamentally change this attitude to war, especially the war over the legacy of the Soviet Union, is naive at best.”

For Navalny, the decentralization of power and the transformation of Russia into a parliamentary republic is the only way out of the “eternal circle of imperialist nationalism”. He explains: “It gives them the opportunity to exert influence and continue to fight for power, while ensuring that their position is not threatened by a more aggressive group.” (chs)