Iran is on the brink of a revolution

“We fight, we die, we suffer no humiliation.” These calls echoed Thursday through Karaj, a city near the Iranian capital, Tehran. Thousands of women and men protest 40 days after the death of Hadis Najafi († 22), who was reportedly shot dead in September. A 40-day mourning period is customary in Islam. Security forces fire and use tear gas against the protesters. At least two people were killed and many injured in the protests.

Riots broke out on Sunday. Countless residents of the Shahrak Ekbatan residential complex in western Tehran have been demonstrating for weeks, especially young people. “Death to the dictator” or “Woman, life, freedom” was heard over and over. The security forces were extremely harsh: they beat people, kicked them to the ground or used tear gas against them. After a man from the ranks of the security forces was killed, the situation escalated. Security forces indiscriminately smashed windows, fired at crowds and threw people to the ground and dragged protesters into detention centers.

At least 250 dead, more than 10,000 arrested

These are just two of the many protests across the country. After the death of Mahsa Amini († 22) in mid-September, who was killed during an Iranian vice squad mission for wearing her veil ‘immorally’, women first called for the dress code to be relaxed. Meanwhile, however, men and members of all social classes are also demanding the fall of the regime under President Ebrahim Raisi (61). At least 250 people have been killed and more than 10,000 have been arrested during the protests, according to human rights groups.

Hamid Hosravi, a research associate at the Asia-Oriental Institute at the University of Zurich, tells Blick, “Iran is on the brink of revolution.” This can happen within months or even years. “Unforeseen events can speed up the process.” According to Hosravi, more and more pupils and students are joining the movement. There are also mass demonstrations in the poorer parts of the major cities, which used to be strongholds for the regime’s supporters. “If the regime intervenes violently, we will see the protesters take to the streets again the next day.” Hosravi: “If it continues like this and more people join the protests, it will be the start of a big change.”

“The elites are in an emergency”

According to Hosravi, there are “first cracks” within the state classes. You see this, for example, in discussions on state television, where the participants blame each other. “The mullah elite are clearly themselves in an emergency.”

The crux, according to scientist Hosravi: “The regime does not want to take a step back, because it knows of the domino effect that this would entail.” At the same time, the protesters did not want to remain in the status quo. “They see no chance for their future, they have no freedom.” Because they couldn’t dress the way they wanted, nor listen to music or dance. And: “You see that the country is occupied by incompetent mullahs and this system does not take national interests into account at all.”

Added to this is a desolate economic situation, inflation and unemployment. Hosravi: “The more the regime tries to be repressive, the stronger the protesters will react.” There is no turning back for them because they know that the regime will imprison, persecute or kill them. “The support and solidarity of the Iranians in the diaspora gives them courage.”