Russia signals withdrawal from Kherson – just a feint? Italy fights over law against illegal rave parties

For the first time in eight months, the Russian flag did not fly above the Kherson regional administration building in the provincial capital of the same name on Thursday. An infamous checkpoint of the occupiers in the Ostrow district also turned out to be deserted in the morning, according to videos distributed on Twitter.

In a video message from his car, Kirill Stremousov informed crew administration that life in the city was going on as usual, but a packed backpack and other belongings peeked out in the back seat behind Stremousov.

At first glance, it seems good news for residents of the largest city under Russian control in southern Ukraine. But there is great distrust of the occupiers and the fear of a feint by the Russian army.

Residents send conflicting signals

The occupiers have sent conflicting signals since the Ukrainian army invaded the city in early October with major territorial gains. In mid-October, the head of the occupation administration, Vladimir Saldo, called on the residents of the city to flee. A few days later, Saldo announced that the entire occupation administration had been moved to the left bank of the Dnipro.

On Tuesday, Balance finally announced the “relocation” of 70,000 Ukrainians, affecting people in a 15-kilometer-wide strip on the right bank of the Dnipro, ie where the Ukrainians could advance.

However, the Ukrainian leadership does not want to believe that the Russians are secretly withdrawing from the strategically important city. “The Russians have deployed their best troops, no one has withdrawn,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera.

“We see it and we don’t believe them.” Similarly, retired Ukrainian general Ihor Romanenko told Al Jazeera: “The evacuation of civilians from the right bank of the Dnipro is only for preparation and propaganda. In reality, the Russians are reinforcing their troops there with fresh soldiers and are even preparing a counter-offensive.”

Russians put concrete bunkers in position

The suspicions of the Ukrainians are not unfounded, after all, the Kiev troops themselves like to use cunning and deceit. In the summer, Ukraine’s leadership loudly announced a counter-offensive in southern Ukraine and said civilians must move to safety, President Zelenskyj said.

The Russian army took the bait and moved troops south from the Kharkiv region of northeastern Ukraine. Then the Ukrainians struck in the northeast and within days the Russians were pushing back from the Kharkov region. Is Russia now trying to do the same in Kherson?

In any case, it doesn’t sound like a retreat if the Russian army recently placed 1,000 new soldiers on the right bank of the Dnipro, as the Ukrainian army says. Images on social media also suggest Putin’s forces are preparing for a defensive battle rather than retreating. In recent days, several videos of precast concrete bunkers on Russian trucks in southern Ukraine have been circulating. For example, this video would have been shot in the Kherson region:

For example, the meshed concrete cubes are set up in the town of Hola Prystan, ten kilometers south of Kherson, as this photo shared on Twitter is supposed to show:

Are the Russians blowing up the dam?

Not only the Ukrainians are concerned about the Russian activities at the Dnipro dam in Nowa Kakhovka, about 80 kilometers upstream from Kherson city center. The Kremlin recently accused Kiev of wanting to blow up the dam, raising fears that Russia was planning to do just that.

It is a well-known ploy of the Russian leadership to accuse its opponents of what it is planning or has already done. According to Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrill Budanov, the Russian military mines the dam as early as April. Recently, two trucks loaded with explosives have also taken up positions at the dam locks.

An explosion of the dam would have devastating consequences. According to Ukrainian sources, 80 cities would be flooded and tens of thousands of people could drown. The dam is also central to southern Ukraine’s water supply and supplies cooling water to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in Europe with six reactors. In the worst case scenario, the explosion of the dam could lead to a nuclear disaster that would affect large parts of Europe. Blowing the dam is still considered unlikely, as the tidal wave would also flood Russian positions south of the Dnipro.

“The situation is quite confused”

“The question is more whether the Russians will blow up or sabotage the dam if they withdraw,” US military expert Michael Kofman wrote on Twitter. “This possibility seems more realistic to me than the Russian talk of a ‘dirty bomb’.”

The Kremlin also recently accused Kiev of preparing an attack with such a radioactive explosive. Kofman heads the Russian research division at the Center for Naval Analyzes in Washington and is considered one of the best experts on the Russian military in the world. Most recently, he was on a research trip in Ukraine, but he too cannot understand the situation in Kherson:

“The situation is quite confused and the evidence is conflicting. In some places the Russians are withdrawing, in others they are strengthening their positions. It seems to me that they are trying to withdraw from the right bank of the Dnipro in a controlled manner, to avoid being cut off from the supply. The Ukrainians I spoke to were confident that they would drive the Russians off the right bank of the Dnipro by the end of the year. This would bring Ukrainian long-range artillery close enough to Crimea to attack Russian supply routes there.”

“It is unlikely that the fighting will stop”

The Ukrainians have been using this tactic since the summer to prepare the battlefield in Kherson. With their Himars rocket launchers, the Ukrainians have destroyed or damaged the supply routes to the city. The attack on the Crimean Bridge in early October further worsened the supply situation for the Russians in southern Ukraine.

But they don’t seem to be out of ammunition just yet, as Michael Kofman points out. “I think it is unlikely that fighting in the region will come to a halt over the winter, although there may be operational pauses. The Ukrainians will likely continue to use their advantage in range and precision to wear out Russian troops.”