That could be Putin’s five-point plan for the war year 2023

It is now November and the end of the war in Ukraine is still not in sight. While Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin (70) initially hoped to conquer the country within weeks, the Russians have now changed their strategy. Critical infrastructure in Ukraine is now being targeted. Power plants, oil and gas storage facilities and transportation hubs are under attack from long-range fires.

Australian military expert and ex-General Mick Ryan explained in October that it was a diversionary tactic designed to give the Russians at the front time to prepare for the next attack. It is clear to him: the Russians are playing for time. He and other experts are therefore certain that the war in Ukraine will continue next year.

Putin needs to realize that too. Mick Ryan explains on Twitter exactly how the Russians were able to proceed and divides Putin’s plan into five points.

Number 1: Attacking from the air

The Russians will continue their air strategy and continue to attack strategic targets. Not only the infrastructure of the Ukrainians, but also military targets, such as “logistics and training centers”. In particular, the Ukrainian air defense will come under fire from Putin’s forces. Because they prevent drones and missiles from getting through. Ryan: “The increasingly effective Ukrainian air defense shield poses a threat to Russia’s strategic goals.”

Number 2: Secure Conquered Territories

The Russians have already conquered part of Ukraine and it is precisely these areas that need to be protected. Ukraine has recaptured areas previously occupied by Putin’s army. According to its own statements, Ukraine was able to recapture more than 400 square kilometers of territory in the Kherson region within days. Further losses must be avoided at all costs.

Number 3: The Russification of Ukraine

Russia-controlled areas in Ukraine will be further Russified, writes the ex-Australian general. He speaks of “political activities”, but does not elaborate on it. He refers only to the city of Kherson. There you saw how Russia works. The city, located near Moscow’s annexed Crimean peninsula, was the first major Ukrainian city to be captured by Russian forces after the February 24 offensive began. At the end of September, Moscow annexed the area in southern Ukraine. The Russification of the conquered territories is important so that Putin can continue to legitimize his invasion.

Number 4: Force trench warfare

It is also important for the coming year that the Russian army is relieved. This requires “Energy Saving” missions to follow. With the aim of forcing the Ukrainians to conduct trench warfare in certain locations. This saves time and the Ukrainians cannot launch offensives to retake territory. Putin’s army suffered heavy losses. Therefore, the Kremlin boss had to announce a partial mobilization in order to be able to send more soldiers to the front.

Number 5: make the army more efficient

A final major goal for the coming year is likely to be “to improve the effectiveness of Russian ground and air forces on the battlefield,” Ryan writes. This means that the Russians will try to increase the supply of the army in order to be able to resupply. Apparently there is a lack of equipment, ammunition and weapons at the front. Time and again there are reports of soldiers complaining about the poor logistics. For that, the Russians would also have to work on better coordination of air and ground forces. There have been many problems here in the past.

Ukraine can win the war

Mick Ryan also explains how Ukraine and the West can respond to these five points. “First, ongoing Western support – in the form of equipment, training, funding and humanitarian aid – is required.”

It will take time, resources and strategic patience for Ukraine to prevail. It is especially important to ensure adequate air and missile defences. Precisely because the Russians will continue to count on attacks from the air. Especially since Putin’s forces will receive more kamikaze drones from Iran.

In winter the war will slow down. And that is exactly why the Russians, but also the Ukrainians and the West should have enough time to prepare for the coming year. Ryan can’t say exactly what Putin’s plans are, of course. His points and thoughts are not an exact prediction. “That’s impossible – there are too many uncertainties in war.” (yeah)