A nail biter in Israel elections – Netanyahu wants to return to power What Kim Jong Un’s missiles have to do with Switzerland’s seat on the UN Security Council

Israel’s fifth parliamentary election in just three and a half years will be another nail-biter. The two main political rivals – Prime Minister Jair Lapid and opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu – were still fighting for every vote on Election Day.

Turnout on Tuesday was the highest in decades – but it was unclear by midday which political camp the majority of voters would choose. According to the Central Election Commission, turnout as of 1 p.m. (CET) was 38.9 percent — the highest since 1999.

Opponents mobilize voters

Former Prime Minister Netanyahu is aiming for his comeback with the help of a far-right party alliance. However, when he cast his vote, the 73-year-old was “a little concerned” about whether he would succeed. The chairman of the right-wing conservative Likud party pointed out that turnout in strongholds of political competition has been higher so far. He still hopes to “end the day with a smile”. The politician, nicknamed “Bibi”, called on his followers to go to the polls immediately.

His opponent Lapid also called for a vote before voting. “Go vote today, for the future of our children, for the future of our state, choose the good and good luck to all of us,” said the 58-year-old chairman of the liberal Futures Party. He had previously visited the grave of his father, Josef (Tommy) Lapid, a Holocaust survivor who rose to fame as a journalist and politician.

When polling stations close around 9:00 PM (CET), the first predictions based on post-election surveys will be published. However, a clear picture of the outcome of the election is not expected until the votes have been counted. The final result is not expected until Thursday.

Two big camps – for and against Netanyahu According to the latest polls, Netanyahu’s Likud party could once again become the strongest force. However, it is uncertain whether his right-wing religious camp will be able to secure a majority of the 120 seats in parliament. Another potential stalemate is expected between Netanyahu’s camp and that of his opponents, led by Lapid. If there is no clear majority, Lapid will remain in office for the time being. Should the formation of a government fail, new elections may be necessary in the spring.

Lapid’s camp includes parties from right to left. The 58-year-old spoke out in favor of establishing an independent Palestinian state. What unites his camp most of all is the will to prevent Netanyahu from returning. Corruption proceedings against the 73-year-old are currently underway.

Arab parties and right-wing extremists influence election results

The decisive factor is the rise of the Arab population. The Arab minority makes up about 20 percent of Israel’s approximately 9.4 million residents. If one of the smaller parties in the Lapid camp fails to pass the 3.25 percent threshold, it could pave the way for the most right-wing government in Israel’s history. The far-right alliance of Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Religious Zionist Party, is seen as a possible kingmaker. According to polls, her party could become the third strongest party in the election. Such a coalition could help Netanyahu escape his corruption trial by changing the law.

The party landscape in Israel is highly fragmented and driven by interests. Even parties from similar camps are often unable to form alliances. In addition to substantive differences, this also has to do with personal disputes. For example, Netanyahu’s relationship with other key figures of the right-wing camp is considered extremely bad.

Permanent political crisis Israel has been in a permanent crisis since 2019. Recent elections often led to unclear majorities. The current eight-party coalition led by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett collapsed in June after losing its majority after just 12 months. Minister of Foreign Affairs Lapid then took over the position of head of government.

After the election, President Izchak Herzog decides who will be tasked with forming a government. The candidate then has four weeks to form a coalition. As with last year’s elections, it could take weeks or months before there is a government. (yam/sda/dpa)