‘He has better chances’

He hopes for a comeback. Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (73) – also known as “Bibi” – wants to regain power in Israel. But can the right-wing politician do it? After all, he is still the man accused of corruption, who gets on well with the heavily criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin (70) and who is also friends with the controversial ex-US President Donald Trump (76).

Parliamentary elections are Tuesday. In fact, according to recent polls, Netanyahu’s Likud party could once again become the strongest force in the Knesset, the Israeli parliament – its bloc could gain about 60 of the 120 seats. This would result in a stalemate with current Prime Minister Jair Lapid (58)’s opponents, which are made up of parties from the right-wing to the left-wing spectrum.

“We need a coalition”

Islam expert Reinhard Schulze (69) says: “The race is certainly open.” However, the polls point to a further shift to the right on the political spectrum. “Netanyahu’s chances of forming a new government remain intact, but to be elected he will also have to form a coalition with the far-right groups of religious Zionists and at least the ultra-Orthodox Shas party.”

This is also a possible scenario for Israel expert Peter Lintl (41). “Netanyahu has a better chance of being elected.” New elections and a stalemate are also conceivable. According to Lintl, if Netanyahu were to be prime minister again, the first thing likely would be that the charges against him be quashed. “In addition, the separation of powers would probably be relaxed.” For example, that Parliament can decide on legal issues. And: “The Palestinian conflict would likely worsen.”

“Lapid with no clear line”

Schulze: “Lapid of the liberal Yesh Atid should forge a complex alliance.” Above all, he should convince the Ra’am United Arab List to participate in the formation of a government again. The Arab minority makes up about 20 percent of Israel’s 9.4 million citizens. “But the existing coalition of eight parties and party alliances will find it difficult to develop a convincing common line.” This is also because the liberal Lapid is oriented more to the right.

What does that mean for nearby Iran, where the protests continue after the death of Mahsa Amini (22)? “The elections will certainly be closely monitored,” says Schulze. However, the regime probably assumes that both governments will act against paramilitary organizations in, for example, Syria. “A victory for Netanyahu would be a greater burden for the systemic opposition, as further tightening of Palestinian policies could strengthen the legitimacy of the Iranian regime, which feels particularly called upon to safeguard Palestine’s interests.”