Power shift in Brazil: high expectations, bigger challenges Foxconn employees flee properties due to corona lockdown

More than 118 million valid votes were cast, of which two million made the difference: Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva was elected Brazil’s new president. 50.9 percent of the vote went to the left, who served as president from 2003 to 2010 and is now entering his third term. The tight election results are an indication of the state in which Lula is getting his country back: deeply divided and very emotional. It won’t be easy for the 77-year-old.

Lula was especially convincing in the northeast of Brazil – here he secured a majority of more than 70 percent of the vote. In the south, with the metropolises of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, right-wing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro led the way. The map of the election results corresponds to that of the wealth distribution in the country: poor Brazilians in particular voted for the left.

Will Lula become the “president of the poor” again?

That came as no surprise, as Brazil – like many other countries right now – is threatened with an economic crisis. The impact of the coronavirus pandemic, which has caused more than 680,000 deaths due to the mismanagement of Bolsonaro’s government, and the rising cost of living mainly affect the poor. Before the elections, the incumbent president tried to counter this with tax cuts on electricity and fuel and an increase in social benefits.

But despite Bolsonaro’s immediate measures, fear is spreading among people who previously could barely afford to eat. Hunger is back, Lula said during the election campaign. 33 million Brazilians would starve – he promised to take care of them and was clearly successful. During his first terms in office, he was considered the “president of the poor”. Lula managed to improve the living conditions of millions of poor Brazilians. “Fome Zero” was his credo then: zero hunger. He wants to build on that.

“Half happy, half worried”

The divisions in society, however, are not only geographical or economic in nature, but extend into families. The mood is heated and violence has broken out repeatedly between supporters of the two camps during the election campaign. On election night, celebrating Lula voters met horrified Bolsonaro fans. There were protests, videos of burning car tires circulated on social media.

The worry: This may have been just the beginning. “I’d just like to be happy, but I’m half happy, half worried,” Lula said later that night. Bolsonaro had already sowed doubts about the electoral system during the election campaign and indicated that he might not accept the result in the event of a defeat. Although allies of the incumbent acknowledged Lula’s victory, he himself remained silent on election night. The Brazilian news portal “G1” reported that he was just going to sleep.

Like Trump in Washington, like Bolsonaro in Brasilia?

This brings back unpleasant memories of the US elections of 2020: Donald Trump also refused to admit his election defeat. The denial campaign culminated in the Capitol storm in January 2021 that killed five people.

Trump is considered Bolsonaro’s role model. Shortly before the election, he published a video message from the ex-US president. “Don’t lose him,” Trump told Brazilians about the right-wing incumbent. “Don’t let that happen. That wouldn’t be good for your country.”

As the newspaper “Folha de S. Paulo” reported, calls for a putsch among Bolsonaro supporters circulated on Telegram in the evening. The president relaxed gun laws and many of his fans have since upgraded.

Election winner Lula is therefore trying to appease: he will rule for all 215 million Brazilians, not just those who voted for him, he wrote on Twitter. “We are one country, one people, one great nation.” But he is not innocent of the divisions in Brazilian society.

Dirty strategy – on both sides

For his opponents, the left-wing ex-president is a criminal: in 2018 he was sentenced to 12 years in prison for corruption and money laundering. The verdict against him was quashed last year – but for formal reasons, not with an acquittal. Bolsonaro and his allies took advantage of this by calling Lula, among other things, a thief and a “national disgrace” and comparing him to the devil.

But hostilities and fake news didn’t just come from the right: Lula and his team followed a very similar strategy. The right-wing Bolsonaro is not only a “little dictator”, but also a cannibal and a pedophile. The president was forced to publicly deny this latest claim.

In addition to the TV duels, the mud fight was mainly fought on social media. There, Lula also presents himself as the savior of Brazilian democracy – before, but even more so after the elections. On Sunday, he posted a photo of his left hand on the Brazilian flag with only one word: democracy. He is missing his little finger, which he lost in an accident when he was 19.

Great expectations on the shoulders of Lula

There is now great hope in him – the expectations are not only high among his supporters. French President Emmanuel Macron wrote about a new chapter in Brazil’s history. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) spoke about two big winners: Brazilian democracy and the global climate.

Because Lula’s second big campaign promise was to declare war on illegal deforestation in the Amazon. As a carbon store, the rainforest is of fundamental importance to the global climate.

International interest is correspondingly high – and Lula, for his part, relies on the support of other countries. He wants to revive the Amazon Fund, a funding program launched under his presidency but halted in 2019 after Bolsonaro took office. Germany is also involved with about 34 million euros.

Ruling against the Bolsonaro supporters

No deforestation, no hunger, a united Brazil: the list of challenges for the elected president is long. The search for parliamentary support is probably at the top: Lula has to convince the center parties to keep his promises.

In Congress, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party is the strongest faction in both chambers. The 2023 budget has already been approved. And Bolsonaro’s supporters, in parliament and on the streets, will lurk at every opportunity to stir up sentiment against the new president.

“We are in a very difficult situation, but I am sure that with the help of the people we will find a way out and restore peace,” Lula wrote on Twitter. His government work will not start for two months and the handover will take place around the turn of the year. He already has the task of reconciling Brazil – and how difficult it will be depends not only on him, but also on Jair Bolsonaro.

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