Those are Vladimir Putin’s options now At least 72 killed in Philippines by tropical storm

A Chinese proverb says: whoever rides a tiger is afraid to get off it again. With his war against Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, figuratively speaking, set up such a tiger. Peter Clement summarizes in the magazine “Foreign Affairs” why the Russian president, who is actually considered pragmatic, took this risk. Clement was a former Russia specialist at the CIA and now teaches at Colombia University in New York.

So here’s the summary: A year ago, from Putin’s point of view, an opportunity for an invasion of Ukraine seemed to arise. The US is politically divided, most Americans cannot find Ukraine on the map and have no need for a new military adventure after the disaster in Afghanistan. Angela Merkel, Europe’s strong woman, has resigned as the world remains in shock from the pandemic. In addition, Europe has become dependent on cheap Russian gas and oil. So what could go wrong?

Almost everything, as it turned out. Putin overestimated the clout of his supposedly ultramodern super army and underestimated the resistance of the Ukrainians. It is simply easier to drop barrel bombs on a defenseless civilian population in Syria than it is to fight determined soldiers armed with modern weapons. Western support has also far exceeded Putin’s expectations.

From a military point of view, Putin’s “special operation” in Ukraine is a catastrophe: his soldiers suffered a shameful defeat at Kiev, they fled headlong from the area near Kharkov, the symbolically important Kerch bridge, which connects Russia to Crimea, was partially blown up; and now Kherson’s next defeat is imminent.

So did Putin paint himself in a corner? “His reactions to the mounting setbacks on the battlefield suggest he’s running out of good options unless he raises the bar and takes even bigger risks,” Clement noted. “The crucial question for Ukraine and the West, therefore, is how far Putin will go.”

In his speech in Moscow on Thursday, the Russian president gave at least a partial answer to this question. She is not very constructive. Putin doesn’t feel like he’s been cornered. On the contrary, he sees himself as the midwife of a new world order. In doing so, the Western elites are defeated and traditional Christian values ​​regain the upper hand. In this world, Russia will regain the respect it deserves, Putin believes.

At the same time, the Russian president denies that he will use nuclear bombs against Ukraine. “It makes no sense, neither military nor political,” he said. At the same time, however, he has maneuvers that simulate the use of this terrible weapon and maintains his ridiculous claim that Ukraine is considering using a “dirty” atomic bomb, a conventional bomb laced with radioactive material.

Finally, Russia recently threatened to shoot down US satellites. Thanks to these satellites, the Ukrainian army has real-time information about Russian troop movements.

Putin’s threats must be taken seriously. His wickedness is known. In 1999, he had several skyscrapers in Moscow blown up by his own secret service. More than 367 people died. Putin then blamed the murder on Chechen terrorists to justify his war against the breakaway province.

However, the use of nuclear or chemical weapons would lead to a very violent response from NATO. The Americans have communicated that more than clearly. Putin will therefore – at least for now – shy away from this nightmare scenario. Instead, he relies on non-military assets.

A cold winter would suit him well. It would increase the chances that the Europeans would freeze and bicker quickly. The first signs of this are here. The house blessing between the Germans and the French is already seriously skewed because of this question. And how long Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s new prime minister, will keep her promise to stand firm against Ukraine remains to be seen.

The US midterm elections are also a ray of hope for Putin. Should Republicans, as expected, gain a majority in the House of Representatives, US support for Ukraine will also be at risk. A minority of Republicans are rejecting the endorsement, with strong support from Tucker Carlson, the influential Fox News anchor.

Kevin McCarthy, the likely majority leader in the House of Representatives, has already stated that no more blank checks will be sent to Ukraine. In the long run, Putin may even hope his buddy and admirer Donald Trump returns to the White House.

Wars end in two ways: either one side surrenders, or peace is reached at the negotiating table. Putin says he is now interested in such talks. This offer cannot be ignored. But it also cannot be that Putin can use the nuclear threat to force illegal concessions.

If Putin’s offer to talk is an attempt to descend from the tiger, then he should also be aware that he has to pay a price for it. Or as David Ignatius puts it in the Washington Post, “We cannot protect him from the consequences of his own folly.”