US general: “The Russians are defeated, the liberation of Crimea awaits in early 2023” Turkey: numerous arrests after mining disaster

During the war in Ukraine, why did Moscow resort to bombing houses and speculating about the use of nuclear weapons and “dirty bombs”?
Ben Hodges: The Russians have been defeated in every facet of this conflict, in the air, on land and at sea. Ukraine is on the offensive and this irreversible momentum is unstoppable. Since Moscow cannot reverse this advance, the Russians try to prolong the conflict as long as possible.

With what purpose?
They hope that the West – the US, Germany, France and other key allies of Kiev – will drop Ukraine over the winter. The Russians also want to break the resolve of the Ukrainian people by attacking the infrastructure. But that’s impossible. The will of the Ukrainians cannot be broken.

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But the Russian attacks are having an effect.
The persistent attacks undoubtedly make everyday life more difficult. How much I can’t say at this point. But I have a feeling that the Ukrainians, who have always impressed me as incredibly resilient and technically adept, will adapt.

So the Russian strategy is doomed to fail?
It’s as if the Russians haven’t read the chapter in military history that says bombing civilians almost never produces the desired result. But the Russians have no other option. Look at the mobilization of the unfortunate Russians who failed to leave the country in time and are now sent to the battlefield unprepared and without training! This is a disaster that almost backfired on the Kremlin.

Can we then ignore the threats from the Russian leadership in the future?
I take all threats from the Kremlin seriously. This, of course, is also White House policy – US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu have called each other twice in recent days after a long hiatus. On the other hand, I don’t think the Russians will detonate a nuclear weapon. Because such an operation would have catastrophic consequences for Russia. Nor am I convinced that the people around Vladimir Putin support such a mission. These advisers are already thinking of the post-Putin era.

So you don’t believe in Shoigu’s warning that the Ukrainians could use a false flag weapon?
The Kremlin has no credibility whatsoever and no one believes Shoigu when he warns of a “dirty bomb”. The whole thing sounds like a teenager’s dream.

Could the continued coverage of an imminent escalation of the war in Ukraine raise doubts about Kiev’s support among the population in the West?
I don’t think the Kremlin will gain new supporters by extending the war with Russia. The Russian people will sooner or later realize that there is no bright spot. The war is now in its ninth month. A winter awaits us that will certainly demand great sacrifices from the people of Europe. It gets difficult. But as Garry Kasparov rightly said, this is the last winter in which Russia can turn other economies upside down.

Do you also believe that the Ukrainian advance on the battlefield will continue?
By the end of the year, the Russians will have to give up all the territories they conquered during the war. And then, early next year, Crimea will be liberated.

You surprise me with your optimism.
War is a matter of perseverance; the winner has the stronger will and better logistics. It is clear that Russian soldiers do not want to fight against Ukrainian soldiers and Ukrainian people. Several hundred thousand military-aged men have fled the country in recent weeks to avoid mobilization. This fact alone shows me that Russia is ready.

Add to this the fighting spirit of the Ukrainians.
The Ukrainians are very skilled, even if of course their logistics are not perfect. But thanks to the support from the West, things are getting better every week. They attack the Russian weak points, bridges and ammunition depots. In addition, Ukraine has about 700,000 people in uniform. Not everyone is well-educated, no doubt, but Ukraine doesn’t have to worry about a lack of manpower.

What will the further course of the war look like?
First, there’s the liberation of Kherson, maybe in two weeks or so. The counter-offensive then continues on two flanks. On the one hand, Ukrainian soldiers will liberate Luhansk and Donetsk. On the other hand, the advance will continue south of Kherson. I would say: all roads lead to Crimea. The closer the Crimean forces get, the more often they can fire on Russian positions with Western precision weapons. I think they could also attack Russian air bases in Crimea and the port of Sevastopol in the spring.

And then the Russian resistance collapses?
Russian troops will find it increasingly difficult to hold Crimea. Once the Ukrainians have crossed the Dnieper, they can cut off the water supply. Since the bridge at Kerch will not be fully repaired until next year, the Russians will try to supply Crimea by land. But soon the Ukrainians will be able to fire on those routes as well.

Still, it is hard to imagine Russia withdrawing from Crimea. That would be the biggest embarrassment to the Kremlin since the end of the Cold War…
… since Afghanistan, yes.

And we know the consequences of the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan in the second half of the 1980s: the withdrawal heralded the collapse of the USSR.
As historian Timothy Snyder recently said: For all Russian players involved, losing in Ukraine can be devastating. But losing in Russia would be worse. The time will come when influential people in Russia will realize that the tide of war can no longer be turned in the Kremlin’s favor.

Could this self-preservation instinct of the Russian elite stop the war?
Nothing Russia does now will improve the country’s position in the world. Nothing. Zero. Except for Iran and Venezuela, no one wants to support the Kremlin anymore. This increases the pressure on the people around Putin. You soon realize: I have to protect myself.