Warning shot for Biden – Trump clearly wins the primaries in Michigan Italians kidnapped in Mali released after more than a year and a half

As expected, US President Joe Biden won a clear victory in the Democratic primaries in the state of Michigan – but the outcome is likely to still worry him. According to predictions, the effectively unrivaled incumbent party won Tuesday’s vote with about 80 percent of the vote, but tens of thousands of voters voted “undecided” in the presidential primaries. This should largely be seen as a protest against Biden’s support of Israel in the Gaza war, especially since Michigan has a relatively large number of Muslims. US President Donald Trump also clearly won the Republican primaries against his competitor Nikki Haley, winning about 67 percent of the votes according to predictions, although the count had not yet been completed. Despite the lead of almost 40 percentage points, the 77-year-old cannot sit back.

Michigan is an important swing state

Anyone who wants to become a presidential candidate in the United States must first win the internal party votes in the various states. A showdown between Trump and Biden in the presidential elections on November 5 is considered very likely. Trump is far ahead of Haley in internal party polls among Republicans and has already won clearly in the primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina against the former US ambassador to the United Nations, who was once responsible for representing Trump’s foreign policy at the international stage. Biden has no serious competition among Democrats. The Republicans will choose their candidate at a party conference in mid-July, the Democrats in mid-August.

Michigan is located in the northern US and has approximately 10 million inhabitants. The industry-dominated state is considered a so-called swing state that cannot be definitively attributed to Democrats or Republicans. Many Michigan residents work for automotive companies or their suppliers, and unions are very important. The influential auto union (UAW) supports the incumbent Biden. But the primary focus was on a foreign policy issue.

Large Muslim community in Michigan

The vote in Michigan was seen as a mood test for how Biden’s policies in the Middle East could affect the November election, as Muslims are a key voting group in the state. According to the pressure group Emgage, about 200,000 Muslim voters live there. They could have a noticeable impact on the November election results. In the 2020 presidential election, Biden won the state by about 155,000 votes over Trump.

For Biden, victory in the Michigan primaries was a formality. But he must especially look at the number of people who voted ‘undecided’. During the last three Democratic primaries in Michigan, about 20,000 Democrats voted “undecided.” On Tuesday evening (local time), with only 41 percent of the votes counted, the number was already around 50,000. Before the election, several groups called for an “indecisive” vote to protest Biden’s policies in the Middle East. They call for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza war and an end to US military aid to Israel.

Biden criticized his support for Israel

But it’s not just Muslims who have likely denied Biden their vote in Michigan. Younger, progressive Democrats also criticize the president given the many civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip. Biden sharpened his tone toward the Israeli government in the weeks following the unprecedented Oct. 7 massacre by terrorists from Hamas and other extremist groups in southern Israel. At the same time, the US government repeatedly emphasizes Israel’s right to self-defense and, in the opinion of many, continues to allow Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to do so.

In fact, Muslims as a voter group in the US lean more toward Democrats than Republicans. It is also considered unlikely that Muslims angry about Biden’s support for Israel in the presidential election will defect to the Republicans. However, things could get tight for Biden in a key swing state like Michigan if many voters vote for an independent, third-party candidate or decide not to vote at all. In an initial message from his campaign team after election results predictions were published, the 81-year-old did not address the issue of the Gaza war or the large number of undecided voters.

Haley doesn’t want to give up

Like Biden, Trump could also count on a clear victory in his party’s primaries in Michigan. But after counting about half of the votes, Haley still received more than 27 percent, while the rest voted undecided or were split among unpromising candidates. The question will be how many of these Haley supporters will ultimately vote for Trump in November’s presidential election if he runs. Some of them do not rule out even voting for Biden to prevent Trump from getting a second term. This may not be true for the majority of Haley supporters. But if this group does not vote or supports a third, independent candidate, it could become a major problem for Trump.

Now there is special attention for March 5, the so-called Super Tuesday. On this day, Republican primaries are held simultaneously in fifteen states. Haley made it clear in an interview with CNN on Tuesday evening that she wanted to stay in the race at least until Super Tuesday. In the past, Trump has been angry that the former South Carolina governor would not withdraw from the party’s internal race despite a lack of prospects for success. Because as long as the 52-year-old does not give up, he cannot concentrate exclusively on his political opponent Biden. Instead, Trump should continue to spend money and time campaigning against Haley. (sda/dpa)