So many Russians were actually conscripted

Putin’s announcement of the mobilization about a month ago caused a stir at home. There were protests and Russians fled abroad for fear of the front. In addition, unusual searches on Google skyrocketed. “How do I break my hand?” and “How do I leave Russia now?” they read, for example.

Apparently enough reservists have been called up by now. No further mobilization is planned, Kremlin boss Putin said a few days ago. He sees no need for this in the “foreseeable future”. So far, 222,000 reservists have been called up and the planned number of 300,000 will be reached in about two weeks.

But the number of people mobilized is likely to be higher – much higher. We are even talking about a million. A look at the marriages of the past few weeks provides a clue.

Only married couples are entitled to compensation

Since the end of September, there has been a huge increase in weddings all over Russia. Background: Russian law describes conscription as a “special circumstance”. Subpoenaed men can sign up for a marriage within a day and don’t have to wait a month – as is usually the case.

Many of the newlyweds may have been a couple for a long time and may not have wanted to get married at all. But with conscription, the man could die in the war. And only one spouse is entitled to a widow’s pension. That’s why many couples still get married quickly, Mediazona reports. Numerous videos of mass marriages between conscripts and their partners are circulating online across Russia.

The Russian news portal has evaluated the marriage data from 75 of the 85 regions. And says: a total of 492,000 men were mobilized.

This is how the number of mobilized people was determined

This is how the portal came to the result.

First, using publicly available data in 75 of Russia’s 85 provinces, the journalists calculated that there had been 31,000 more marriages than usual since mobilization.

According to a 2021 census, 1,800,000 men of military age between 18 and 49 had stable, extramarital relationships in these 75 provinces. Precisely the candidates who would probably marry their partner – same-sex marriage is banned in Russia – if they were called up. Due to poor census data, journalists have rounded the figure to two million.

31,000 out of a pool of 2,000,000 is 1.56 percent. According to Mediazona, this percentage is also the general mobilization rate. Because there is no reason why it should be any different for singles and married people. An exception is fathers of at least four children under the age of 16, which is very rare.

If you divide the number of able-bodied men in all 85 provinces of Russia by 1.56, you get 492,000 men.

As the journalists even broken down the “redundant” weddings – and thus the mobilization rate – by region, as far as this data was available, another anomaly came to light. In the poor regions of eastern Russia, such as Trans-Balkania, Khabarovsk, Buryatia and the Autonomous Jewish Region in the southeast, proportionately more marching orders are distributed than in the rich west. (Hi)