The war is going badly for Ukraine – these five points still give hope. Myanmar’s junta sentences three officers to death for withdrawing

The defeat in Avdiivka caused shocks both in Ukraine and in the Western supporting states. The feeling of dejection in the face of the seemingly inexhaustible waves of Russian attacks is much more pronounced than after the fall of Bakhmut in May 2023. Several military analysts are already predicting that other fortified places along the front could fall soon after Avdiivka (see map below).

There is no doubt that Russia is keeping the momentum going with its second winter offensive. “The Russians are trying to force Ukraine to use its precious reserves through many simultaneous attacks,” Austrian military lecturer and Guard Colonel Markus Reisner explains in an interview: “At the same time, the Russian goal is to continually exhaust the Ukrainians in the fight against the Ukrainians. hope of creating a… “To create a dam break at an advantageous point on the front.”

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But is the military situation for Ukraine really that hopeless? However misguided the euphoria following the recapture of Kherson and Kharkov in the fall of 2022 was, in retrospect the current pessimism could prove just as wrong. From a military and political perspective, there are at least the following five points that point to an imminent improvement in the Ukrainian position:

Prevent encirclement

Although the battle for Avdiivka was extremely costly, the Russians failed to encircle larger Ukrainian units. Even days after the fall, no images have emerged showing the capture of large numbers of Ukrainian soldiers or the capture of large amounts of war materials by the Russian military.

The withdrawal to a straight, shortened front line allows the Ukrainians to continue the defensive fight against the Russian attack waves while their units are still largely intact. This still takes place along the Ukrainians’ first and second positions. On Monday evening, the Ukrainians are said to have repulsed a major Russian attack towards Zaporizhia, which cost the attacker heavy losses.

Even if the Russian army were to achieve a breakthrough at the front, the question is whether it would be able to deploy these extensive operations in the Ukrainian hinterland. For this kind of flexible, mobile warfare, Russia now lacks not only the tank reserves, but also the qualified officers and elite soldiers who have long since fallen. Already after the capture of Bakhmut in May 2023, the Russians no longer had the means to decisively expand their local victory.

Wake-up call for the West

In addition to dejection, the fall of Avdiivka has also provoked some decisive reactions in the West. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s announcement at the Munich Security Conference that she would transfer all of her country’s artillery systems to Ukraine is likely to trigger a chain reaction of similar pledges.

French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu promised the delivery of a new generation of kamikaze drones “within a few weeks” that could alleviate the acute shortage of artillery and ammunition.

From the US, NBC News reported on Monday morning that the Biden administration was finally moving towards delivery of long-range ATACMS surface-to-surface missiles, after only sending the older intermediate-range models to Ukraine so far.

If there is a breakthrough in the dispute over aid funds blocked in the US Congress, the ATACMS missiles and other artillery ammunition would be part of the first tranche of deliveries, it was said in Washington on Monday.

F-16 approaching

According to consistent reports from the front, Russian air superiority and ground attacks by fighter-bombers and helicopter gunships were crucial factors in the victory at Avdiivka. However, not without consequences. On Monday morning, Ukraine reported the shooting down of two more modern Russian aircraft, bringing Russian aircraft losses to six in three days – an unprecedented number of deaths.

In addition to the relocation of air defense systems away from the cities at the front, the reinforcement of the Ukrainian air force is also planned. In the context of the Munich Security Conference, the delivery of the first F-16 jets, which had previously been postponed several times, was announced at the beginning of June.

Up to forty American fighter-bombers equipped with modern guided missiles could revolutionize the air war in the second half of the year. This would also reduce the burden on Ukrainian ground forces.

Strikes against the Black Sea Fleet and the oil industry

Although Ukrainian defeats in the ground war currently dominate the news, Ukraine is fighting successfully on other fronts. After the landing ship ‘Caesar Kunikov’ was sunk a week ago, a third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been destroyed or put out of action. This not only has far-reaching consequences for naval warfare, but also hampers Russian supplies, former NATO Lieutenant General Mark Hertling analyzes on CNN.

Concentrated attacks on Russian oil production, most recently with kamikaze drones on an oil depot in Kursk, are simultaneously aimed at hampering Russia’s main source of exports and revenue – a central aspect of strategic warfare.

Fight for existence

Despite the current desperation, most Ukrainians remain aware that giving up is simply not an option as the country fights for its survival. However, the unconfirmed images of the shooting of Ukrainian prisoners of war in Avdiivka circulating on the Internet will only strengthen this determination to resist.

In contrast, despite waves of human attack, neither Russia’s capabilities nor its capacity to suffer are unlimited – even though it may seem that way at the moment.

In Afghanistan, the Soviet Union waged a brutal war of intervention from 1979 to 1989, which Russian soldiers and families increasingly viewed as pointless given the blood toll far from home. It is estimated that around 25,000 Soviet soldiers were killed in Afghanistan.

The ever-increasing fatigue and resistance of civil society over the past decade have contributed significantly to the collapse of the communist system. After two years of war against Ukraine, the Russian death toll has already increased at least three times.