Decisive for the course of the war or just a symbolic success?: What the Russian capture of Avdiivka means

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End of fire in Avdiivka: The 3rd assault brigade of the Ukrainian army has to admit defeat.
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Guido VeldenForeign editor

Things are not looking good for the Ukrainian troops on the front at the moment. After months of resistance, they had to admit defeat in Avdiivka on Saturday and give up the city in the east of the country. The General Staff in Kiev spoke on Sunday about a difficult operational situation on the fronts in the east and south of Ukraine. A total of 56 battles were recorded in different sectors of the front, the military leadership reported on its Facebook page.

Using a tactic first used during the war in Ukraine, the Russians forced the Ukrainians to give up.

The new Ukrainian commander Olexander Sirski (58) writes about “To protect the health of the soldiers.”

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The battle for Avdiivka lasted about four months.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia’s success is likely due to air superiority. The invaders apparently temporarily stepped up airstrikes to support ground forces – a tactic the Russians probably used for the first time in the war in Ukraine. Hundreds of glide bombs were also used. At the same time, the Ukrainian army is facing a shortage of ammunition and problems recruiting soldiers.

Biggest success since Bakhmut

The industrial city of Avdiivka plays a key role in Moscow’s goal to capture the two eastern Donbas provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. Mykola Bielieskow of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, a think tank in Kiev, told Reuters that taking the city would be a logistical advantage.

However, it is not much more than a symbolic success. It is the Russians’ biggest victory since the capture of Bakhmut in May 2023. The capture is expected to boost Russian troops’ morale while demoralizing Ukrainian soldiers.

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According to Bielieskow it will not have a decisive influence on the course of the war. He believes that Moscow has intensified the battle for Avdiivka to increase skepticism in the West about the aid delivery.

The Ukrainians have entrenched themselves

Not much can be seen anymore of the city, which is only ten kilometers from the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk and was temporarily under Russian control in 2014. According to the organization Center for Information Resilience, almost all houses have been destroyed or damaged. Ultimately, about 1,000 of the 33,000 residents were still trapped in the many bunkers.

However, Avdiivka will likely mark the end of further Russian advances in this region. The ISW writes that the Ukrainians have withdrawn to established defensive positions west of the city. “The Russians would likely suffer significant casualties if they decided to attack these Ukrainian positions head-on in the open.”

The Ukrainians have not yet written off Avdiivka. Sirksi confidently announced, “We will return.”

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Source: Blick

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Amelia

Amelia

I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.

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