Munich Security Conference: What the meeting means for Ukraine Things are not looking good for Switzerland’s contract package with the EU

As he began his speech at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday morning, his voice was shaky and a little too soft to be clearly audible to everyone in the conference hall. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj stands on stage wearing a black sweater and green military trousers.

He seems tired, almost a little exhausted. No wonder: Zelensky has been fighting on two fronts for almost two years: on the one hand, the Ukrainian army is defending itself against the Russian invasion, and on the other, the president is fighting on the support front in many Western countries. so that its allies continue to give weapons and equipment to Ukraine.

On both fronts, things are not looking particularly good for Ukraine’s leaders. On the one hand, Western support has been eroding for months. On the other hand, in the middle of the security conference on Saturday evening, news broke that the Ukrainian army would withdraw from Avdiivka. The small town in southeastern Ukraine is fiercely contested, with both sides suffering major losses here. After Bakhmut, Avdiivka became a symbol of Ukrainian resistance. The next meat grinder, in which probably thousands of fighters died.

The loss of Avdiivka is also a warning shot for the West. The fear of many experts: if nothing changes, Vladimir Putin will win this war. This fear is accompanied by anger in Munich – especially towards Donald Trump and the US Republicans.

West defeats himself

The mood at the security conference is somber due to several major crises. If you talk to politicians or diplomats in the narrow corridors of the Bayrischer Hof hotel, hardly anyone will say that they are doing well. “Depending on the circumstances” is the most common answer to questions about general well-being. The circumstances? Often it concerns wars, Putin, fear of Trump and occasionally also concerns about the crisis.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) addressed this current pessimism in the West in his speech on Saturday morning. He reminds us that Putin misjudged his war in Ukraine. Moscow has achieved “none of its war aims” in Ukraine. Kiev has not yet been conquered, Europe has broken away from its energy dependence on Russia and the sanctions will hit the Russian economy. Scholz is interested in hope and in determining the European course for long-term support for Ukraine.

But the signs for this are currently poor. Germany is now by far the second largest donor country for military aid to Ukraine – after the US. Americans are threatened with failure because of the election campaign and pressure from Trump and the Republicans. They are already blocking an aid package for Ukraine in the US Congress to extract migration concessions from the Biden administration.

So the West is currently trying to defeat itself – and Ukraine is ultimately in danger of becoming Putin’s victim. While some states willingly gave up their old military equipment to the Ukrainian army at the beginning of the war, aid is now stagnating where large financial investments in armaments would be required. If the US were to stop supporting Ukraine, Germany would suddenly be the main opponent in this war from the Russian perspective.

Look for more autonomy

This does not mean that a military conflict will arise between the Federal Republic and Russia. However, as the biggest supporter, Germany would have a responsibility that would currently significantly overwhelm the country, especially in the military field. Experts warn about this again and again during the Munich security conference.

According to European diplomats, there is really only one solution to this dilemma: in the short term, the Europeans must ensure that the US continues to fulfill its current responsibilities. In the longer term, Europe must become more sovereign in the field of defense policy. But what makes sense is an uphill battle at any security policy meeting – especially for Zelensky.

Zelenskyj promotes team

“If we don’t act now, Putin will manage to turn the coming years into a catastrophe,” Zelensky said in his speech on Saturday morning. ‘We have to work together as a team. If Ukraine stands alone, you will see what happens: Russia will destroy us, destroy the Baltic states, destroy Poland – it is capable of that.

A ‘team’ in which Ukraine wants to take over the defense and demands Western war supplies in return. Zelensky goes on to explain that he does not really believe that the EU states are “psychologically ready” for a Russian invasion. One thing is clear: “We expect a response from all of us in 2024,” says the Ukrainian president. “Our resistance has prevented the destruction of the rules-based world.” The longer the war lasts, the greater the risk of expansion and further damage to the international order.

Scholz seems isolated

The central Ukrainian message: it also defends us against a Russian invasion. She can win, but to do that she needs weapons. There are many Western expressions of solidarity with Ukraine today. Zelensky also received a long applause after his speech at the security conference and the entire room stood up.

But applause does not win wars and ultimately it is the West that deliberately keeps its military capabilities small in some areas. This is also the case in the discussion about a possible delivery of the Taurus cruise missile by Germany. For fear of a further escalation of the war, Germany did not send the weapon to Ukraine. A mistake, say many security experts in Munich. Scholz appears to be relatively isolated with his position, even in his cabinet.

‘It’s shameful how Zelensky has to beg’

There were many guarantees for Ukraine during the security conference. More money, more anti-aircraft, more ammunition. But there is little concrete and the Ukrainian defenders need all the help they can get as soon as possible. After all, countless people die every day as a result of Russian attacks.

A European diplomat made it clear in an interview with t-online on the sidelines of the Ukrainian president’s speech: “It is shameful how Zelenskyj has to beg,” she says. When it comes to supporting Ukraine, everything is happening far too slowly and hesitantly. And indeed: “Long-range weapons do not exist. Russia has them, we have very few. That’s the whole truth. That is why our fighters are our most important weapons,” says the Ukrainian president, sounding almost a bit desperate. “Weapons packages, anti-aircraft packages, that’s exactly what we expect.”

Republicans shock conference audience

One thing is clear: the Americans must provide the bulk of military support. Without their military capabilities it won’t work. That is why the Ukrainian president is making offers to talk to the Republicans and even wants to invite Donald Trump to the front. “It’s different there than on Instagram,” Zelenskyj explains.

But Ukraine’s problems will not be solved quickly, especially with regard to the US. This becomes clear shortly after Zelensky’s speech. At 10 a.m., the Ukrainian president leaves the conference room, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and Republican Senator Pete Ricketts take the stage.

During the panel discussion, the Republican was confident that his party would not block American aid in the House of Representatives in the long term. At the same time, he defends the current blockade and points out that “each country has its own policies and its own priorities.” For his party, illegal migration across the US southern border is currently the most important issue and “an urgent national security issue.”

And then a shock: Ricketts suddenly compares the migrants in the US to the Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Both pose a threat to the security of the countries. It is the moment when an indignant murmur goes through the crowd and the hall on Saturday.

Republicans’ lack of empathy for the suffering of Ukrainians is causing great anger in Munich; After all, Ukrainian lives are being sacrificed for political games in the US. This realization still weighs heavily after three days of a security conference – and so far there is no concession in sight from the Trump camp. This is bitter for Ukraine and Zelensky, because both the country and its president could use a little break – at least on one front.

Used sources: