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Does he do it or doesn’t he do it? This is what Europe is wondering after Vladimir Putin’s (71) recent threats against Latvia, where politicians are vociferously considering the forced deportation of thousands of Russian-speaking people. Nearly two years after his brutal attack on Ukraine, some in the West are forgetting how irrational the de facto autocrat in the Kremlin can be. Others, on the other hand, underestimate NATO’s defensive strength and fear without any reason that the Russian flag could soon fly over Warsaw or Berlin.
A new report from the Danish military intelligence service Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste now provides a more differentiated picture. Blink read it.
It is becoming clear: military intelligence does not expect Putin to launch a military attack on a NATO state. His respect for Article 5 is too great, which states that the entire NATO (including the military superpower US) will immediately intervene if one member state is attacked. Europe must be wary of a new Russian threat, which Switzerland in particular is not taking seriously enough.
Throughout 2024, Russia will try by all means possible to confuse the European population and cause as much chaos as possible. Cyber attacks on important online services were as much part of the Russians’ repertoire as financial support for politicians who wanted to damage European unity.
Is the Federal Council really smarter than all other governments?
The Danish specialists warn particularly sharply about Russian propaganda activities aimed at creating an anti-Ukrainian and NATO-critical mood in the West. The 76-page report specifically mentions the Russia Today platform, which is blocked across the EU but can still be accessed without issue in Switzerland.
In March 2022, the Federal Council decided to allow the propaganda platform to continue. It would be more effective to ‘combat untrue and harmful statements with facts instead of banning them’, the Federal Council wrote. The Swiss government is the only one in Europe with this attitude.
The Danes are now warning against just such solo efforts. Troels Lund Poulsen (47), the Minister of Defense of the Nordic kingdom, once again emphasized the adversity that threatens Europe this year during an appearance before parliament in Copenhagen.
Russia could potentially launch attacks on ships in the Baltic Sea – or cause confusion with large-scale cyber and information attacks. Putin now wants to test how NATO responds in an emergency.
The Kremlin boss is getting a taste of NATO’s response these days as he watches from a distance the biggest NATO exercise since the Cold War, being held right on his doorstep in the Baltics and Poland until May. 90,000 soldiers, hundreds of tanks and fighter jets simulate an attack by an unnamed provocateur on a NATO country. The signal to Moscow is clear: don’t even think about it!
This could inadvertently lead to war
Such NATO shows of force are important. And at the same time extremely risky, as the Danish intelligence report explicitly states. There is a “serious risk” that lower levels of the Russian armed forces will completely misjudge the threat against Russia or allow themselves to be provoked prematurely and then overreact. This could lead to an unintended direct confrontation with Russia in 2024.
And while the West continues to guess what Putin plans to do this year, Ukraine finds itself in an increasingly desperate situation. A new aid package from Washington, which would have filled the war chests and ammunition depots in Kiev in the coming months, was foiled in the last meters by the Republicans under pressure from presidential candidate Donald Trump (77). Parliament will vote on the package on Wednesday. It shouldn’t have a chance.
Ukraine must tremble. Without American help, the Russian army cannot be held back for long. Neither NATO exercises with 90,000 men nor reassuring reports from the Danish secret service help.
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
