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Russian President Vladimir Putin (71) came closer to his goal last year. Military and Eastern Europe expert Gustav Gressel from the think tank European Council in Foreign Relations in Berlin closely follows the war in Ukraine and describes three possible scenarios in an analysis. The course of the war depends primarily on the West – and on the elections in the US.
Last year, Russia managed to solve the main problems of its own army. The armed forces were deployed more effectively and fewer Russians were killed. Weapons production was increased. Meanwhile, Western support for Ukraine declined. This is crucial for 2024.
In the best case: Ukraine goes on the attack
It would be best for Ukraine if former US President Donald Trump (77) were excluded from the presidential elections and Nikki Haley (52) ran for the Republicans. Who ultimately wins the American elections has little influence. But: if Haley entered the race and exposed the indecisiveness and weakness of the US during the election campaign, it would be President Joe Biden’s turn (81) and ensure Ukraine of increasingly effective weapons. Such as F-16 fighter jets and Atacms missiles. “Ukraine is therefore in a position to push the Russian air force further back from the front and reduce their effectiveness,” says Gressel, describing the scenario.
This would mean losses for the Ukrainian army, but at the same time training would be improved. Ukraine could create new brigades using the latest technology. That would prompt the EU to once again provide more support to Ukraine. In the long run this would be a huge advantage. “At the end of 2024, Ukraine created the conditions to regain the initiative and liberate additional areas in 2025,” Gressel said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (46) can be satisfied with this.
Medium scenario: Ukraine remains on the defensive
Chaos in the US elections would have consequences for the battlefield in Ukraine. If Biden were thwarted by Republicans because they demanded money for US projects such as a wall on the southern border, it would be difficult to promise effective aid packages. “The US continues to provide Ukraine with trickle-down aid,” said Gressel, describing the situation in the case.
The EU would then continue to supply little ammunition. Ukraine could stay afloat, but only in a defensive position. The Ukrainian army would have to “cede a number of areas under Russian pressure,” Gressel explains.
The fact that Ukraine is not getting enough armored vehicles would become clear in the second half of the year. Ukraine’s weapons are missing spare parts or ammunition. New brigades would be disbanded and Kiev would find it increasingly difficult to find new soldiers. Motivation would steadily decrease. “In short: Ukraine remains on the defensive and survives the year 2024,” says Gressel about this scenario. Who wins the war then depends on whether the Democrats or the Republicans win the American elections.
In the worst case scenario, Ukraine will not be able to repel the attacks
If Trump campaigns and becomes the Republican presidential nominee, things will look bad for Ukraine. Republicans would block any effort by Biden to send aid to Ukraine. The EU would continue to send weapons, but would not be able to compensate for what the Americans are missing.
Ukraine would soon run out of grenades and rockets, preventing the country from going on the offensive. Advantage for the Russians. The Ukrainians would retreat a little and the soldiers at the front could no longer be withdrawn because they would have to hold the position. That would have dramatic consequences, Gressel warns: “By the end of 2024, most Ukrainian brigades will be tired and exhausted.”
Without the American Atacms missiles, Ukraine would be able to fend off fewer Russian attacks. Putin would take advantage of this to bomb the country. “The increasingly bleak outlook is causing many Ukrainians to flee. By the end of 2024, ten million Ukrainians will have fled to the EU, and that number is rising,” says Gressel. This would entail significant costs for the EU, reducing resources available to support Ukraine.
If Trump were to subsequently win the election, Europe would stop supplying Ukraine. Worried that US support for Ukraine would be withdrawn and that Russia might attack other countries, the EU would arm its own military. Gressel says of the worst-case scenario: “The war in Ukraine is considered lost by most Westerners, even as Ukraine itself continues to fight against all odds.”
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
