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Escalation: We hear this word every day when it comes to violence in the Middle East. But now the situation could actually get out of hand. Three Americans were killed on Monday in an Iranian ‘Shahed’ drone attack on a US military base in Jordan. These are the first American deaths in the area since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7. US President Joe Biden (81) must respond.
Iran-backed militias seeking to drive US forces out of the region are believed to be behind the attack. A withdrawal would be one of Biden’s options. More likely, however, is another scenario that is significantly more dangerous for us in Europe.
Biden has three options on the table:
1
“Extend the Claws” Option: Attack on Iran
Never in history has the US attacked Iran on its soil. A direct confrontation between the superpower and the mullahs’ regime would mean a new, extremely dangerous chapter for the world. And yet, high-ranking Republicans are demanding exactly that: presidential candidate Nikki Haley (52) is demanding that Biden respond “with the full force of the American armed forces.” And Senator Lindsey Graham (68) trumpets: “Attack Iran. Now. With full force.”
This maximum requirement also causes a lot of misunderstanding within the party. “Damned lunatics” (“Damned idiots”) was ultra-conservative TV superstar Tucker Carlson’s way of responding to Haley and Graham’s demands. And Donald Trump (77)? He is quiet. “Things would never have gotten this far under him,” the ex-president announced. He does not want to be more specific.
One thing is clear: if America attacks Iran, it will likely respond by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. About a quarter of the world’s oil and gas volume is transported through the strait, which Iran effectively controls. A blockade would result in a global economic crisis.
2
‘Pull tail’ option: America withdraws
Bernie Sanders (82), the pioneer of the American left, is not the only one calling for the withdrawal of American troops from the Middle East. “We haven’t lost anything anymore!” This argument is also used by more and more right-wing Americans who, after decades of wars in the region that cost billions, wonder why the US continues to send young soldiers to the death zone.
But, contrary to what many of the retreating Americans claim, the US still plays a central role in the region. This is now evident from the fight against the Houthi rebels, who have been shooting at merchant ships from Yemen for weeks. The Americans are the only ones who have the means and the will to stop this terror on the ground.
The American base that was attacked was also used to fight terrorism. It is located in the tripoint between Jordan, Syria and Iraq, where there are numerous smuggling routes used by IS. A US withdrawal would turn the entire zone into a center for terrorist organizations.
3
‘Customized’ option: Biden copies Trump’s textbook
It therefore seems most likely that Biden will do exactly what his predecessor did: military tweezers. In January 2020, Trump had the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Qassem Soleimani, assassinated with a drone in Baghdad, Iraq. Biden could pursue similar plans against Soleimani’s successor Ismail Qaani (66).
Alternatively, Biden will likely consider targeted strikes on major Iranian warships currently stationed in Gulf waters. As early as 1988, US forces destroyed Iranian warships during Operation Praying Mantis in response to mining in the Gulf. Just like then, world trade in the area is likely to come to a standstill again. Long waiting times for Zalando packages and urgently needed spare parts were among the smaller concerns we faced.
A new edition of the “Praying Mantis” would have a serious impact on Tehran’s praying mantises. But the ‘impending escalation’ would not disappear from the news so quickly.
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
