Analysis predicts a strong shift to the right in European elections. Analysis predicts a strong shift to the right in European elections

June’s European elections are likely to result in a strong shift to the right in many countries, according to a new analysis. Right-wing populist parties will gain votes and seats in the EU, while centre-left and green parties will lose them, according to a forecast published on Wednesday by the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

The analysis is based, among other things, on survey results for national elections and the parties’ vote share in the last national parliamentary elections. According to the information, it also takes into account whether the parties are currently in government or opposition, which major political family the parties belong to and how long ago the last parliamentary elections were.

According to the assessment, populists critical of Europe are likely to lead the way in nine EU countries, including France, Italy, Poland and Austria. In another 9 of the 27 EU member states, right-wing parties will therefore end up in second or third place – including the AfD in Germany.

According to the forecast, the two largest political groups in the European Parliament – ​​the Christian Democratic party family EPP and the social democratic S&D – are likely to lose seats, but could still form a majority together with the Liberals and Greens. “This reflects the long-term decline in support for mainstream parties and growing support for extremist and smaller parties across Europe,” the authors explain. This leads to an increasing fragmentation of the European party systems at both national and European level. If the elections go as the think tank predicts, this could have far-reaching consequences for the EU’s political agenda, the think tank said.

The European elections will take place on June 9. In Germany, voters aged 16 and over can cast their votes. (sda/dpa)