Donald Trump’s clear victory in the Republican primaries in Iowa is unsurprising and yet somehow disturbing. As the presidential candidate of the Grand Old Party, the ex-president will probably only be prevented from running by force majeure – health or prison. Moreover, Trump is currently slightly ahead of Joe Biden in various surveys.
A return of the ex-president to the White House has become a disturbing but also conceivable option. From Berlin to Mexico City, governments and business experts are beginning to prepare for such a scenario. Graham Allison, a political scientist at the Harvard Kennedy School, also thinks about this. He shares them with us in the magazine ‘Foreign Affairs’.
What is a “Trump Put”?
Allison speaks of a ‘Trump Put’ and refers to the legendary ‘Greenspan Put’. With his monetary policy, the former president of the American Federal Reserve ensured that investors were spared major losses even in the event of major calamities on the financial markets. Hence the term ‘put’, which describes a financial instrument that hedges against price losses. on the fairs.
But Allsion is also calling for a ‘Trump hedge’. This means that those responsible within government and companies must now take measures that will at least mitigate the consequences of a Trump election victory.
Let’s get specific:
Why Putin is betting on a Trump victory
Trump likes to brag that he will end the war in Ukraine “in one day.” He continues: “I will explain to President Zelensky that there is no more help. You have to make a deal.”
These words are of course music to Vladimir Putin’s ears. Given these prospects, the Russian president has every reason to postpone his trench warfare until Trump returns to the White House and hands him victory on a silver platter. Putin would therefore be the winner of a “Trump put.”
Conversely, heads of state in Europe must prepare the books and create a ‘Trump hedge’. According to John Bolton, Trump’s former security adviser, the ex-president is no longer willing to continue maintaining the American protective shield on the Old Continent. “I don’t care about NATO,” Trump reportedly told him. James Mattis, Trump’s former defense secretary, resigned over Trump’s disdain for the defense alliance. That is why, from Paris to Berlin to Warsaw, the motto that Angela Merkel once warned about applies: “We must rely on ourselves in the future.”
How the climate agreement could fail
A bad joke made the rounds at the climate conference in Dubai. It reads: “What is COP28’s unofficial plan to transition away from fossil fuels? Burn them as quickly as possible.”
Unfortunately, there is more than a hint of truth in this cynical saying. Even though everyone in the world is talking about decarbonizing the economy and society, even though every elementary school student now knows what a Green New Deal is, more fossil fuels are being used than ever. Oil production in the US has reached a record high. India wants to develop into the next economic miracle thanks to coal-fired power stations; and China builds the most solar cells, but also the most new coal-fired power stations.
Joe Biden has launched the largest program yet for an ecological restructuring of society. Trump would immediately end it, just as he would withdraw from the Paris environmental treaty for the second time. He likes internal combustion engines and likes the stupid slogan: “Drill, baby, drill.”
How international trade would come to a standstill
Trump prides himself on being the “tariff guy,” meaning he is a fan of protective tariffs. That’s why, during his first term, he halted the TPP, a trade deal with Asian countries that his predecessor Barack Obama had already negotiated, and halted negotiations on a similar deal with Europe. Trump also wants to undo a watered-down version of the TPP that the Biden administration negotiated on the first day of his inauguration.
These are not empty threats. Even during his first term, Trump caused unrest among multinational companies with punitive tariffs. He especially keeps an eye on China, which, according to his then economic advisor Robert Lighthizer, has become a “deadly rival” to the US. In his second term, Trump wants to go one step further; He wants to impose a punitive tariff of ten percent on everyone, ushering in a new era of economic isolation and protectionism.
Why the Mexicans are shaking
Currently, approximately 10,000 illegal immigrants cross the southern U.S. border every day. The Republicans are playing a cynical game: in the House of Representatives they refuse a loan to massively increase border security. At the same time, they are doing everything they can to stir up panic about immigration.
Trump opened his first election campaign with the fight against illegal immigrants (“Mexicans are criminals and rapists”) and played his strongest trump card with a wall. He now also wants to take a big step further in this area. He promises to round up illegal immigrants in a kind of concentration camp and then carry out the “largest deportation operation in American history.”
If this actually happens, it would be a nightmare for Mexicans. They would have to house millions of people in one night.
It is no wonder that government and business representatives are concerned, even shocked, as they consider the scenario of a Trump victory. However, it can also be a salutary shock, especially for Europeans. As historian Robert Kagan described twenty years ago in his book “Mars and Venus,” people on the Old Continent have relied on the U.S. military protective umbrella for far too long and kept defense spending to a minimum.
Due to the war in Ukraine, even the Germans now speak of a “turning point” and have made a special budget of 100 billion euros available for the Bundeswehr.
Although the weather and time of year are not optimal for this, you should still keep in mind the saying: “One swallow does not make a summer.” Trump’s victory in Iowa must be put into perspective. It took place in a rural state whose population is predominantly white, old and conservative. Even then, Trump ultimately won only half of Republican voters, and even then, one survey found that about a third of all primary participants would not vote for Trump if he were convicted by a jury. That would be enough to hand the ex-president another crushing defeat.
Nikki Haley, on the other hand, is clearly beating Joe Biden in the polls. No wonder Trump is still the Democrats’ favorite opponent.
Soource :Watson
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
