Even Barack Obama is worried. During a private lunch at the White House, the ex-president is said to have spoken to the conscience of his former deputy Joe Biden, the Washington Post reported. Obama said he needed to strengthen his campaign team, ideally with people who had led him to two election victories.
In doing so, he expressed widespread fear among Democrats that the US president and his entourage would take the November 5 elections lightly. Given Biden’s weak poll numbers, this is not surprising. Especially because, as things stand now, there is a risk of a ‘rematch’ with his predecessor Donald Trump.
He is as unpopular as Biden in the national polls. But he never accepted his defeat in 2020. To this day, he continues to spread the story of the stolen election. His campaign is already in full swing, although there is little to indicate that the nomination as Republican candidate will be taken away from him.
Trump has the party under control
Despite two impeachment trials in Congress and various legal proceedings, Trump appears to have a stronger grip on the party than ever before. He could afford to be conspicuous by his absence from any of the televised debates so far. He is still clearly ahead in the polls, including in the state of Iowa, where the first primaries will take place on Monday.
American presidential elections have never been an affair for the faint of heart. The two election campaigns between John Adams and Thomas Jefferson in 1796 and 1800 (the first time Adams won, the second time his rival) were marked by attacks below the belt. But with Donald Trump, the 2024 election year will likely be particularly nasty.
The field is cleared
The question before the start in Iowa is: Can Trump be stopped? The field of his challengers has become thinner in recent months. Former Vice President Mike Pence was one of the first to throw in the towel. Chris Christie followed on Wednesday. The former governor of New Jersey was the only one to attack Trump head-on.
Ron DeSantis remains in the race for now. But the hopes of the Florida governor and former anti-Trumpers were a complete failure from the start and are considered complete. The same goes for ‘lateral newcomer’ and Trump admirer Vivek Ramaswamy. It’s just not enough to ask the question, “How do you become President of the United States?” on ChatGPT. to type in.
Nikki Haley’s battle plan
That leaves only Nikki Haley, Trump’s former UN ambassador. It relies on a coalition of Republican voters who completely reject Trump – people like Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney – and those who appreciate Trump and his policies but do not ignore his dark side and are open to a viable alternative.
With them she could form a majority, because the ‘irreducible’ Trump fans only make up about 20 to 30 percent of the party base. Haley’s battle plan is to defeat Trump in the second primary on January 23 in New Hampshire. Non-partisans can also participate there, and there she is only slightly behind Trump in the polls.
Fall between chair and couch
A success in the east coast state and on February 24 in her home state of South Carolina, where she was governor, could give Nikki Haley “momentum” to wrest the nomination from the ex-president. It has the support of major donors. The only problem is that their seemingly brilliant strategy is in danger of failing.
Because Nikki Haley only criticizes Trump in homeopathic doses. Without his ‘fan club’ she cannot win in November. This puts her in danger of falling between a chair and a couch, as she admitted in an interview with ABC News: “The anti-Trumpers think I don’t hate Trump enough. The pro-Trumpers think I don’t love him enough.”
Who else can see through it?
Haley is still not without a chance, says Politico magazine. But she must achieve a breakthrough no later than March 5, ‘Super Tuesday’ with primaries in 15 states. Otherwise it’s over and Trump will march on. Then only his legal battles could prevent him from being nominated by the Republicans.
However, the various procedures and processes form a ‘tangle’ that many people no longer understand (why was he on trial again in New York?). Trump appears to be relying on the fatigue effect and delaying tactics. It is also unclear whether the Supreme Court will uphold the exclusion of the primaries in Colorado and Maine.
Even Lincoln has to believe it
It seems doubtful whether the Supreme Court will decide to do so. In any case, Donald Trump verbally lets go of all inhibitions. He unashamedly uses Nazi jargon when describing political opponents as “vermin” (Hitler’s “vermin of the people” greets them). He doesn’t even stop at America’s ‘pillar saint’ Abraham Lincoln.
The question is what he wants to do with it. Is he repeating his strategy from 2016, when he constantly pushed the boundaries of what could be said and achieved a habituation effect? And could this fuel the resentment of those “Average Joes” who feel themselves and their ideal image of America (white, God-fearing, conservative) betrayed by the “woke” elites?
Hoping for a new replacement
It’s not surprising that Barack Obama and many Democrats fear the “real Joe” in the White House. One problem is his age. Biden is 81 and doesn’t look a day younger. Due to a stiffening of the spine, he walks like an evasive old man. Self-irony about his age (“I knew the Founding Fathers personally”) doesn’t help much.
However, there is no serious challenge in sight for the incumbent. Some hope that Biden will at least appoint a ‘new’ vice president instead of the weak Kamala Harris. But Joe Biden is a very loyal person – that is also a big difference from his predecessor.
Abortion remains important
So has Biden already lost, as the Economist fears? A lot can happen between now and November. And polls have repeatedly proven unreliable in recent years. For example, the issue of abortion, which has kept women on edge since the national law was tightened in June 2022, is being underestimated.
Since then, pro-abortion referendums have been held in several states, including twice in Ohio last year. Nevertheless, Republicans in the state, which has shifted to the right, are persistently trying to reverse these votes. Because they are as dependent on radical opponents of abortion as they are on Trump’s devoted followers.
The race is more open than you might think. This even applies to the question of whether there will be another match between Biden and Trump. But the election year will certainly be ugly. Together with cyber attacks and fake news on social media, AI deepfakes are likely to further poison the political climate in the already polarized US. Strap in!
Soource :Watson
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
