US midterms: clouds over Democrats are darkening again At least 50 dead in protests against the transitional government in Chad

In two and a half weeks, on November 8, 2022, the US will set its political course for the next two years. A third of the Senate (35 out of 100 senators) and all 435 members of the House of Representatives are up for election. At the same time, governors are elected in 36 states and three regions.

Currently, President Biden’s Democratic Party has a (thin) majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. On paper, they are behind in the Senate with 48 versus 50 seats. Thanks to the two independent members attributed to the Democratic camp and the vote of Senate leader Vice President Kamala Harris, they have a nearly 51:50 majority.

Things are a little less tight in the House of Representatives: the current seat ratio is 221 to 212. In the meantime, the opposition party traditionally has an advantage – especially when the president’s approval rating is as low as it is now with Joe Biden.

Senate

Poll guru Nate Silver is currently predicting a Democratic victory on his website fivethirtyeight.com. The odds are 3:2. “Politico” is currently not making any predictions. The race for the Senate will be decided in the states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada.

CNN isn’t leaning too far out the window either: 48 Democrats and 49 Republicans are likely. The other three ultimately decide on the majority.

House of Representatives

Nate Silver makes a slightly different prediction in the general election in the House of Representatives. According to model calculations, the chances for the Republicans there are considerably better. In 75 out of 100 cases, the “GOP” wins more seats than the Democrats. The case is also clearer for Politico. It was “probable” that Republicans won a majority. CNN agrees with this assessment. Of the hotly contested 19 seats, at least 13 should go to Democrats to defend the majority.

the momentum

After what looked like a landslide victory for the Republicans months ago, the Democrats were able to gain ground after the Roe vs. Wade’s abortion ruling was overturned. That momentum has waned. According to polls by Morning Consult and the New York Times, economic issues now dominate the election campaign. They are rated “very important” by 80 percent of all Americans. Abortion rights receive the same appreciation from only half of the population.

The pendulum is swinging back, especially in the important group of voters without party affiliations. In September, this group was still more than 14 percentage points ahead of the Democratic camp, mainly because of the abortion issue. According to the latest “New York Times” poll, voters not affiliated with any party now prefer Republicans — by a whopping 18 percentage points. Again, concerns about the US economy and inflation are presented as driving forces.