Russian and Ukrainian troops are apparently preparing for battle for the occupied city of Cherson. Eyes are on the Ukrainian troops who are expected to launch the attack in the near future. Fighting has been reported from the Kherson region in recent days.

But information is difficult to verify because Ukraine knows how to keep the operation secret. The military may not share images or make statements about actions or military plans. Russia is also holding the cards in front of its chest. However, both countries confirmed in early October that Ukraine had liberated several villages along the Dnieper River.

Ukrainians have limited resources to attack the front lines and must choose the best moment to deploy their troops. It’s difficult to predict when Ukraine will advance, says Han Bouwmeester, associate professor of military strategy at the Netherlands Defense Academy. “It can take months. Cherson is a difficult city, but it is also an attractive city.”

Kherson was the first major city that Russia captured after the invasion and the only regional capital it captured. As a result, the place has great symbolic value. In addition, Kherson is located in a strategically important place. The city is crossed by the Dnieper River and is close to the Crimean Canal, which supplies water to this peninsula. The city with its port also has a lot of economic value.

The Russians are preparing

In recent months, an offensive seemed imminent, but the Ukrainian army did not push ahead. Now there are again signs that the army is advancing. For example, the American think tank Institute for the Study of War says the Russians are likely to move soldiers and large amounts of equipment from the west bank to the east bank of the Dnieper.

It seems that the Russians have learned from the rapid and forced withdrawals in other regions in early September. “They don’t want to be taken completely by surprise again,” says Bouwmeester. “An advance would drive out the Russians.” He also thinks the arrival of a new Russian commander who wants to preserve his image is a factor.

Another indication of an advance are “evacuations” by the Russians. Russian authorities plan to transfer about 50,000 to 60,000 citizens from the city to other parts of the region under Russian control in the coming days.

That would be necessary because of Ukrainian attacks on the city. Ukrainian politicians speak of “deportations”. People don’t have to go, but if they do, they can only go to Russia or a Russian-controlled area.

Ukrainian authorities also fear Russians are planning to breach the nearby dam on the Dnieper to stop an attack. President Zelenskyy says Russia wants to blow up the dam and hydroelectric power station and has planted explosives in front of it. That would mean 18 million cubic meters of water would flow to Cherson, says Zelenskyj.

Civilians who had left Cherson were also concerned about this, they told the NOS. According to Russia, Ukraine wants to attack the dam and hydroelectric power station, cutting off Crimea’s water supply.

“Ukraine does not benefit from this at all,” says Bouwmeester. “If the dam is breached, the land around the river will be flooded and its banks will become inaccessible to the Ukrainian military.” This would make recapturing the city virtually impossible for Ukraine.

long fight

Analysts continue to guess how the war will develop and when Ukraine will launch an attack. “If Ukrainian troops manage to cross the river, their army will have an advantage,” says Bouwmeester. A partisan army is said to be hiding in the city.

“You can see that Ukraine is attacking across the board, but it’s not going as fast as it did in Kharkov in September,” said Bouwmeester. “It’s going to be a long fight.”