Russian attacks with guided missiles and drones left at least four dead and more than a hundred injured in Kiev and Kharkiv on January 2. An apartment building was hit in the Ukrainian capital.
Around the turn of the year, the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas again rained rockets on Israel. However, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are not only comparable in size.
While Moscow wanted to bring Ukraine to its knees, Hamas was mainly concerned with making its presence felt. It fired more than twenty projectiles into Israel without causing any major damage. There are still about 130 hostages in terrorist dungeons. This is also why the Israeli media is calling 2023 the worst year since the state’s founding in 1948.
Fewer missiles
But none of this can disguise the fact that Hamas is on the brink of collapse. Their destruction at the hands of vastly superior Israeli forces is only a matter of time – as long as foreign partners like the US do not force Jerusalem to give in prematurely. Hamas is running out of supplies. Although their tunnels provide protection from air attacks, with Israeli infantry and special forces at the entrances and shafts, they are increasingly becoming death traps.
The statistics of rocket attacks clearly show how Israel is systematically destroying Hamas’s military potential: after the October 7 terrorist pogrom, hundreds of rocket launches were recorded every day. This number had already dropped dramatically by November, and by December only about 15 to 20 rockets were seen in the skies over Israel each day. Most of them were shot down by air defense.
Nevertheless, the government in Jerusalem is trying to prepare the population for a longer war. The goal of destroying Hamas as a military fighting group and removing it from the control centers in the Gaza Strip seems achievable.
Things look bleaker for the hostages, some of whom are probably already dead. Hamas is demanding a cessation of all hostilities in exchange for their release. Israel, on the other hand, sticks to its objectives. There will be no return to terms before October 7.
Some terrorists will certainly be able to escape, and Hamas will continue to live abroad. But this Hamas will be but a shadow of its former self. The question is what form of rule Israel can establish in the Gaza Strip – if possible in cooperation with friendly Arab states. The question also remains open whether, after the end of the war in Gaza, Israel will fight the Hezbollah militia in neighboring Lebanon, which is heavily armed by Iran, thereby risking an even bigger war.
Things could get even more uncomfortable in 2024
The fact that signs point to war, not only in the Middle East but also in other parts of the world, has to do with the West’s overall weak response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the absence of decisive action, warmongers like Russia and Iran feel emboldened to take the matter to the extreme. But even as support from the West has waned, Kiev’s forces have so far managed to hold the line. At the same time, the Ukrainians inflicted heavy losses of people and material on the invaders.
With the impending delivery of Western fighter planes – especially Dutch F-16s – Russian air superiority will be limited, at least locally. This is likely to make attacks with guided glide bombs, which have wreaked havoc on Ukrainians in recent months, more difficult.
Meanwhile, Moscow increases military spending and expects a long war of attrition. Russia is pleased that the West apparently lacks the political will to rearm and massively expand arms production. Many Western politicians still do not realize that the threatening gestures of authoritarian states are not random isolated events.
The potentates of this world feel encouraged by the West’s weakness in dealing with Russia to dare to undertake their own military adventures. If the West were to give Ukraine only hesitant support or no support at all, it would stimulate the appetite for war, not only in Europe but also in other parts of the world.
Yet it is still too early to write off Ukraine. The leadership of the armed forces has already announced that maintaining the army is more important to them than holding on to territory. If necessary, the Ukrainians will withdraw, destroying as many Russians and their military equipment as possible.
The current material losses in Russia are not sustainable. The lost military equipment can hardly be replaced by new production and reactivation of mothballed weapons. Seen in this light, Moscow’s winter offensive will also be exhausted this year. And even if the Ukrainians were to withdraw across the board, the country is simply too big to allow Russia’s offensive efforts to weaken sooner or later.
Soource :Watson
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
