2024 will be a super election year: almost half of the world’s population lives in countries where elections will be held this year. A new president is elected in about thirty states and the composition of parliament is determined in about twenty other states.
The overview of the 2024 election year:
UNITED STATES: Will Trump return?
Donald Trump has not yet been determined as the Republican nominee. But it is likely that the ex-president will face incumbent US President Joe Biden on November 5, despite several ongoing criminal proceedings. It would be the same constellation as in the last presidential election. Trump has still not acknowledged his defeat and his lie about the ‘stolen election’ culminated in the storming of the Capitol by his supporters. Disinformation will also likely define the 2024 election campaign – and the debate over whether an 81-year-old and his then 78-year-old likely challenger are fit to rule the country in their old age.
Russia: Opposition eliminated
Vladimir Putin has been in power in Russia for 23 years. In 2020, he had the constitution amended so that he could theoretically remain president until 2036, which would mean he would trump Josef Stalin. Only in December did Putin officially announce his candidacy for the March 17 elections; the 71-year-old wants to rule for another six years. He hardly has to be afraid of opposing candidates. Against the backdrop of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the opposition and civil society were silenced. The main political opponents are dead, in exile or in prison, like Alexei Navalny, the Kremlin’s greatest enemy.
India: Prime Minister Modi’s favorite
Nearly a billion Indians are being called upon to elect the parliament of the world’s most populous country in April and May. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his nationalist BJP party are seeking a third term in office. Modi’s political career is based on the support of more than a billion Hindus. Critics accuse him of stoking hostility against the Muslim minority. His supporters credit him with improving India’s reputation in the world. Although Modi has restricted civil liberties in recent years, he is the clear favorite in the elections, which will last several weeks due to the size of the country.
European elections: Test for the right-wing populists
In the world’s largest transnational elections in June, more than 400 million eligible voters from 27 EU countries will determine the 720 members of the European Parliament. After the victory of right-wing populists in Italy and the Netherlands and the current immigration debate, the vote is a test for the support of the far right at European level.
The fact is: more than five months before the European elections in June, opinion polls predict a clear shift to the right in the elections. According to projections, the right-wing populist faction ‘Identity and Democracy’ could become the fourth strongest faction. This could shift the balance of power in the European Parliament, with progressive groups fearing for their majority.
Germany: According to surveys in federal states, the AfD is in the lead
In 2024, a new state parliament will be elected in three eastern German states: in Saxony and Thuringia on September 1, in Brandenburg three weeks later on September 22. According to the surveys, the right-wing populist AfD could become the strongest force in all three states.
Mexico: First female president?
A woman could become president of Mexico for the first time in June. That would be a powerful symbol in a country where thousands of women are murdered every year. Two women are considered favorites to succeed President Andrés Manuel López Obrador: former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, of the left-wing ruling Morena party, and Senator Xóchitl Gálvez, the opposition alliance’s candidate.
Iran: First elections after mass protests
Parliamentary elections in Iran will take place on March 1, 18 months after the death of Mahsa Amini. The death of the young Kurdish woman after her arrest by the moral police led to months of mass demonstrations against political and religious leaders. The protest was brutally suppressed, hundreds were killed and thousands arrested.
Before the last elections in 2020, numerous reformist and moderate candidates were excluded, leaving Iranians only between conservatives and ultraconservatives. (sda/afp)
Soource :Watson
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
