Gaza, Ukraine, Climate: Why there is (little) hope China appoints a new Minister of Defense

The new year is not off to an encouraging start. “Is the world out of control?” is the topic that will be discussed in the “SRF Club” on January 2. This question has been an ongoing topic in recent years. It was placed in the context of the Islamist terrorist attacks and the corona pandemic. Now it has taken on even more urgency.

For almost three months, a internecine battle has been going on in the Gaza Strip between Israel and the terrorist organization Hamas, causing terrible suffering to the civilian population. The war in Ukraine will soon enter its third year. In both cases the end is not yet in sight. There also seems to be more setbacks than progress in the climate crisis.

Of course not everything was better in the past, on the contrary. But the (apparent) stability of the Cold War and the supposed triumph of democracy and a market economy after its end have conveyed a false sense of security. Who could imagine that another “old school” war of conquest would take place in Europe?

Around the turn of the year, the prospects in all problem areas are bleak. And an analysis by CNN offers little hope for 2024. It is limited to the finding that at least the worst predictions for the coming year have not come true (including a Chinese invasion of Taiwan). But that is no guarantee for the new year.

It is difficult to remain confident in the face of such prospects. Nevertheless, in all the cases mentioned, there is a glimmer of hope, albeit a small one.

The Gaza War

On October 7, Israelis were shocked by their false sense of security. In the early morning hours, hundreds of Hamas terrorists captured Gaza’s border fortifications unhindered. They carried out a massacre of visitors to a music festival and killed more than 1,200 people.

It was the worst crime against Jews since the Holocaust. Shortly afterwards, the Israeli ‘revenge campaign’ began in Gaza. An inferno has raged ever since, interrupted only by a ceasefire to exchange hostages and prisoners. For the Palestinian population – some two million people – this is a humanitarian catastrophe.

Although aid supplies have apparently increased in the Gaza Strip since Christmas, countless people are at risk of dying from hunger and cold. The fighting is said to have claimed more than 20,000 lives. The number of Israeli soldiers killed – more than 150 so far – is also constantly increasing as a result of Hamas guerrilla attacks.

The Israelis are therefore considering a change in strategy. They want to withdraw to a “buffer zone” about a kilometer wide and fight Hamas from there. The war will last “many months”, Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi warned. And a lasting peace solution for the period afterward is only rudimentary at best.

A major cause of the October 7 disaster has disappeared from view: the failure of the Israeli security forces. This suits controversial Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Unlike the heads of the army and secret services, he has not taken responsibility so far and hopes to ‘sit out’ the problem.

The question is whether he can get away with it. The relatives of the more than a hundred hostages still held by Hamas are putting pressure on them. On Monday they disrupted Netanyahu’s speech in the Knesset with chants. The Americans, as their most important ally, are also demanding “more targeted action” from Israel in the Gaza Strip.

US President Joe Biden is under pressure from his own base with a view to his re-election. There is also reason for hope that the feared fire has not yet occurred. Iran, as the ‘protecting power’ of Hamas and the Lebanese Hezbollah, does not appear to risk a major confrontation. Yet the immediate prospects are bleak.

The Ukraine War

St. Stephen’s Day brought a much-needed sense of achievement to Ukrainians. They managed to destroy a Russian warship in Crimea with an air strike. They also reportedly shot down several fighter jets with Patriot missiles. In the east, however, the Russian invaders are gaining ground, albeit slowly.

After some spectacular successes in the first year of the war, there has been little reason for Ukrainians to celebrate lately. Their counter-offensive was a failure. It turned out that ‘conventional’ wars are difficult to win in the age of drones and electronic warfare. The Russians have learned from mistakes (but so have the Ukrainians).

Ukraine is also threatened by increasing ‘war fatigue’ in the West. In the US, the main supporter, a large aid package is blocked by the dispute between Democrats and Republicans in Congress. In the EU, the brakes are Viktor Orbán, and according to the Financial Times, a “Plan B” is being worked on.

Disputes over leadership further hamper Ukraine. No wonder Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin is trumping things. For him the war is practically won. Behind the scenes, however, he has reportedly indicated his willingness for a ceasefire since September, the New York Times reported in a major investigation.

That would be completely plausible. The Kremlin originally believed that the war could be won by storming Kiev within three days. He is about to enter his third year, and despite the Russian propaganda noise, success on the battlefield is not in sight. Putin also used to be a rational politician, which even critics acknowledge.

The effect of the sanctions is being absorbed by the transition to a war economy. At the same time, however, Putin is trying to keep the war in Ukraine out of the reach of the people. According to the New York Times, even Kremlin analyzes have shown that at most 15 percent of Russians actively support the “special operation.” The vast majority are apathetic.

Putin could benefit from a ceasefire, also in view of the Russian presidential elections in March. But there’s a problem: he wants to declare himself the winner. “He is willing to stick to current positions, but he is not willing to move backwards,” a former administration official told the New York Times.

This is unacceptable for Ukraine. It wants to retake all Russian-occupied territory, including Crimea. For this she hopes for new weapons such as the F-16 fighter jets or missiles with a longer range. This makes an early end to the fighting illusory. Even in the war in Ukraine, there is little more than a glimmer of hope.

The climate crisis

The year 2023 will be the warmest year since weather records began – that’s something to add. However, many still find it difficult to recognize the seriousness of the situation. “Self-inflicted” factors contribute to this, such as ex-icon Greta Thunberg, who strayed from the path of virtue, or the “climate glue” with their disruptive actions.

Contrary to what they claim, there is progress. More and more solar energy is being produced in Switzerland. But fossil fuels are still subsidized with enormous amounts of money, directly and indirectly (by not taxing jet fuel). At the same time, there is often a fight for every cent when it comes to sustainable energy.

Time is of the essence. According to the Washington Post, scientists are convinced that global warming will accelerate, with devastating consequences in the form of extreme weather events. Other researchers are more cautious, without denying the problem in any way. Another report recently caused a stir.

Accordingly, the world is ‘racing’ towards five tipping points. They would set in motion a development that cannot be reversed, even if greenhouse gas emissions were stopped. The disappearance of tropical coral reefs may be manageable, but the collapse of the ice caps in West Antarctica and Greenland is not.

The resulting sea level rise would threaten not only some island states, but also all coastal areas. In any case, the report lists some “positive” turning points. These include advances in electromobility, which will lead to cheaper batteries, or the production of “green” hydrogen and ammonia.

This year’s UN climate conference, held in the oil emirate of Dubai and chaired by the oil minister, also agreed at the last minute for the first time to move away from fossil fuels. However, there is no obligation to leave. That’s why the sobering finding also applies to the climate crisis: there is hope. But it is manageable.