Tory ‘civil war’ over asylum policy: Things are getting uncomfortable for Prime Minister Sunak Zelensky to announce peace talks in Switzerland soon

Today the vote on the new asylum law will take place in the British Parliament. This is why the Tory party is being torn apart and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is caught between the two fronts. “He would have to give in to one side of his divided party, but that would anger the other side.” said political scientist Mark Garnett of the German Press Agency. The party would likely topple Sunak, or the head of government would call new elections sooner than expected.

At the heart of the Tories’ “civil war”, as commentators call the dispute, is a crackdown on illegal migrants entering the country in small boats across the English Channel. Sunak has promised to stop these arrivals. The new law is intended to discourage the following: It aims at the deportation of illegally immigrated asylum seekers to Rwanda, regardless of their origin – without the possibility of return.

Experts such as political scientist Matthew Flinders of the University of Sheffield speak of symbolic politics at high costs. So far, £270 million has flowed into Rwanda, but no migrants have arrived there. The law will not change the cause – the backlog of asylum applications – Flinders told the dpa.

The Tory right rejects the law as inadequate

That morning at a breakfast in Downing Street, Sunak tried to change the minds of the Tory right wing representatives – it was uncertain whether that would work. The plan still does not go far enough for right-wing conservatives. They demand significant tightening, otherwise they would at least abstain.

Sunak’s draft aims to declare Rwanda a safe third country – even though Britain’s highest court had criticized constitutional deficiencies in the East African country. To ensure that those affected cannot bring legal action in the British courts, recourse to British human rights is now excluded. However, the hardliners are calling for withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights so that those affected can no longer turn to international courts. Sunak has so far rejected this.

And even for the moderate part of the group, also about 100 members strong, this goes way too far. They fear for their reputation if Britain ignores international human rights. Legal experts are already criticizing that the draft undermines the separation of powers. If Sunak accepts the demands of the right, the left of the party will threaten an uprising. The 43-year-old is therefore stuck between the fronts.

Even if the law passes, the dispute will only be postponed and is likely to erupt again later, says expert Garnett of Lancaster University. Political scientist Flinders said there was no way out:

Migration as an important theme in the election campaign

For the Tories, migration has long been one of the key issues in the upcoming election campaign. A new parliament must be elected in January 2025; commentators expect a vote no later than fall 2024. In polls, Sunak’s Conservatives are far behind the social democratic Labor Party. The Tories see tough measures against illegal immigrants as an opportunity to keep their voters in line.

But instead of appearing united, the dispute over the question is creating new chaos and mutual accusations. As with the Brexit debates under then Prime Minister Theresa May, right-wing extremists in factional groups such as the European Research Group (ERG) are presenting themselves in the media to put pressure on Downing Street. A ‘Star Chamber’ of right-wing conservative legal experts gave Sunak’s plans a thumbs up in front of the cameras. By then it was clear that the Prime Minister was no longer in control of his political destiny.

Sunak remained inactive for a long time

According to observers, Sunak himself is responsible for the increasingly vocal debate. He allowed the quarrel to continue for days, relying on the so-called whips, responsible for the discipline in the group, as well as for the charm of his Foreign Secretary and pre-predecessor David Cameron. But flattery – supposedly even lifetime mandates in the House of Lords were offered – and threats of early elections have apparently only managed to bring a few right-wingers into line.

Only the vote tonight will show whether this is sufficient. Exactly four years after their stunning 2019 election victory, the vote could hasten the end for the Conservatives. The first are already demanding that in this case the winner from back then take over the party again. His name: Boris Johnson. (saw/sda/dpa)