How Putin wants to weaken NATO in the Balkans through influence in Serbia “Brings shame to Ireland”: right-wing extremist riots shake Dublin

First Israel, then the Balkans? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is certain that Russia plans to destabilize the Balkans – as a further distraction for the West from the war in Ukraine.

The country has been defending itself against Russia’s war of aggression for more than twenty months. Without military support from NATO and the US, Zelensky and his people would not have been able to withstand the attack. Since the brutal Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, Ukraine has now shared media attention with the war in the Middle East.

Experts are concerned that Israel’s war against the terrorist group Hamas could also affect military aid to Ukraine. Many American Republicans, especially Trump allies, are already criticizing the support for Ukraine. With each new conflict that arises, the focus on Ukraine could decrease further. According to Zelensky, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin knows this too.

Zelensky fears chaos in the Balkans because of Putin

“Pay attention to the Balkans,” the Ukrainian president warns his partners at a media conference. According to him, Russia is also aiming for war there ‘to create distraction’. Ukraine has indications that Russia intends to spark a conflict between the Balkan countries, he emphasizes. Zelensky added: “Believe me, we are receiving information. Russia has a long-term plan.”

However, he does not provide any evidence, so this assumption seems somewhat speculative, says political scientist Florian Bieber when asked by Watson. He is the author of the book “Powder Keg Balkans” and professor of history and politics of Southeastern Europe at the University of Graz.

According to the Balkan expert, Putin does not have enough rein to start a war in the region.

Putin can stoke tensions, but he cannot control them

“Russia is working with local politicians in the Balkans, especially in Serbia, Bosnia and Montenegro. But it can’t ‘control’ them or create conflict on its own,” Bieber says. He explains: When local politicians such as Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić have an interest in tensions in Kosovo, they cause tensions there.

That would please Russia and might encourage Vučić, but not cause the conflict. Nevertheless, Zelensky’s statement should be taken seriouslysays Balkan expert Konrad Clewing when asked by Watson. He conducts research at the Leibniz Institute for Eastern and Southeastern European Research in Regensburg.

“In terms of intelligence, the Ukrainian side is probably better informed about what is happening on the Russian side than many Western actors – especially when it comes to the activities of the Russian secret services,” Clewing said. According to him, Russia is clearly very active in the Serbian environment in the Balkans.

From a geostrategic point of view, it is true that Russia is interested in weakening the West’s position where possible and thus supporting Ukraine. “That certainly also applies to the Balkans, and actually to the whole of Southeastern Europe,” he says. However, he seems to question whether a major ‘explosion’ is the goal. Given the balance of power in the Western Balkans, it is probably more about general destabilization and selective escalation of violence.

The experts agree: the dispute over Republika Srpska (RS), the Serb entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, offers great potential for conflict. Add to that the ongoing conflict between Serbia and Kosovo.

Clewing says:

The Western Balkans therefore provide the only Russian leverage to trigger a major ‘explosion’ in Serbia. The national independence of NATO member Montenegro is also being undermined by Serbia within the limits of its possibilities, says Clewing. Against this background, Putin’s Russia enjoys great popularity among Serbs as an anti-Western and revisionist power in the nationalist environment.

Serbia maintains close ties with Russia

According to Clewing, Russia has political and diplomatic influence in Serbia on the one hand, and on the other hand at the intelligence level, “which is much more important there than one can imagine in Germany.” Accordingly, a Russian base in southern Serbia raises questions.

Apparently it serves cooperation in the field of ‘civil defense’. “However, over the years of its existence, it has shown so little in the way of civil protection activities that one can rightly attribute the main activity of its personnel to intelligence,” says Clewing .

The expert therefore suspects that the Russian Foreign Secret Service (SWR) was probably aware of and involved in the deadly paramilitary attack in Banjska in northern Kosovo at the end of September. At the time, Serbian paramilitaries were fighting the Kosovo police. Clewing explains:

This incident shows that Russia does not have the resources for a major explosion in the Balkans. Rather, the aim is to undermine the political stability of the region and the West’s position of power there and in general.

Only Kosovo, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are not NATO members, “so the possibilities for conflict are severely limited without NATO being directly attacked,” Bieber said. In addition, Bosnia and Kosovo are under the protection of an international peacekeeping force.

According to Bieber, if Serbia were to intervene in both countries, there would be a conflict with NATO. Then it would be about the credibility of the international military alliance.

NATO would likely be ill-prepared for the event of an escalation

Any non-intervention would also encourage Russia, Bieber says. According to him, the military presence has already been increased. But ultimately he considers a war between Serbia and Kosovo very unlikely. Small incidents such as the one in September in northern Kosovo are much more realistic.

“These would not be interstate conflicts and Serbia could more easily avoid responsibility,” Bieber said. Therefore, it is even more important to stop any attempt to play with such conflicts. For this purpose, NATO and the EU should also set clear boundaries for Vučić.

Clewing warns that NATO would not be particularly well prepared for a large-scale escalation in the region in the short term.

NATO currently has approximately 5,500 soldiers under its command in Kosovo, the majority of whom are not fit for combat. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, EU-led Western associations are much weaker, Clewing said. In this respect, Bosnia would be the most vulnerable flank of the Western presence, ahead of Kosovo.

It is no coincidence that the West is also taking Zelensky’s warning seriously. “The US State Department subsequently made clear that the financial sanctions imposed on November 16 on a dozen Serbian and North Macedonian actors and companies close to Russia were exactly in line with Zelenskyj’s warning,” Clewing said .

The aim of the US sanctions is to weaken structures at the intersection between Russian influence and political-economic corruption in the Balkans.