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Russian President Vladimir Putin has still not called his attack on Ukraine, which he described as a “special military operation,” a war. However, he now declares a state of war in the four annexed regions – partly on the basis that the Ukrainian state of siege was in force before the annexation. This means that Russia is now under martial law, which comes with huge restrictions on people’s personal freedoms.

For example, there is a curfew and military censorship: checkpoints are set up and freedom of movement is restricted, explains Russian human rights lawyer Pawel Tschikow. Arrests of up to 30 days, confiscation of property, detention of foreigners and travel restrictions for Russian citizens abroad are also possible. Forced labor in arms factories should also be possible.

But why is Putin taking this step? What does it mean for the people in the occupied territories and in Russia? And is Russia’s official declaration of war on Ukraine now foreseeable?

“Russia urgently needs manpower”

The political scientist and security expert Gerhard Mangott of the University of Innsbruck considers this unlikely. “A formal declaration of war is completely unrealistic,” Mangott said in an interview with t-online. He believes that the Kremlin is still a long way from declaring a state of war in Russia.

With the declaration of martial law in the occupied territories, Putin is pursuing another medium-term goal: “He wants to create a legal basis for general mobilization in these annexed regions.” The Russian army is under great pressure to make up for losses in its own ranks. “Russia urgently needs manpower”.

Initially, attempts were made to fill the gaps through partial mobilization in Russia. Now it is likely that efforts will be made to organize men for the front through forced recruitment in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions. In the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Mangott says, this is already the norm.

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However, this did not make further escalation at the front more likely: Russia is mainly concerned with increasing the number of personnel in its armed forces. “Today is a documentation of Russia’s claim to control these four Ukrainian regions.”

Neighboring regions are also given far-reaching powers

Military expert Gustav Gressel of the European Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin sees it that way. Putin wants to substantiate the claim “that these areas are governed,” Gressel told Welt news channel. In practice, little would change in the occupied territories: in recent months the Russian military had already “taken the lead” by forcibly recruiting people, deploying extensive security powers and deploying civilians for forced labour. With the final step, these practices would only be cast into an alleged legality.

In addition, the imposition of martial law could also affect the image of war as it is presented to people in the West: until now, information from social networks would have helped to understand troop movements, deployment and maneuvers. But with the new legal situation, publishing such content is prohibited, Gressel explains.

Human rights situation is likely to deteriorate

Human rights lawyer Chikov and other experts also emphasize that in connection with martial law, in principle, all regions of Russia could be affected in one way or another. According to the Kremlin, the state of war means that the surveillance of (military) state objects will be further tightened.

It is therefore particularly important to safeguard public order, ie to increase the security of, for example, traffic and communication routes and energy systems. In addition, evacuations may be ordered to take people to safe areas.

Civilians can also be deployed to assist in defense tasks, for example to repair war damage, explains lawyer Chikov. Last but not least, the work of political parties and the right to assemble or strike are also restricted. Human rights activists fear that the difficult situation in the affected Ukrainian regions, already under the Ukrainian state of martial law, will continue to deteriorate as the Russian authorities have more powers. (t-online, ld)

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