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Since the start of Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine, millions of Ukrainians have fled abroad. But many Russians also packed up and turned their backs on their country. Either to escape political oppression or military service, or to explore new economic opportunities. They prefer to settle in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

How will they be welcomed abroad and what are the social and economic consequences of this new “Russian diaspora”? The Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) took a look at the most popular Russian destinations:

Georgia

Georgia is located directly on the border with Russia, south of the Russian Republic of Chechnya. Because no visa is required to enter the country, it is a popular destination for Russians to settle.

An exact figure about Russian immigrants – or relocation, as they call themselves, does not exist. However, it is estimated that hundreds of thousands of Russians have resettled in Georgia since the war. According to the Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs, 112,000 Russians arrived in Georgia in the first nine months after the start of the war alone.

According to a study by the Center for Eastern European and International Studies (ZOiS) from May 2023, immigrants are mainly young people (average age 32.6) from cities.

As the ISPI writes, Russians came to Georgia in two major waves of migration. The first occurred in the first weeks after the invasion began in February 2022 and lasted until the following summer. The second came after Putin's announcement of a partial mobilization on September 21, 2022. While the first wave consisted mainly of people who disagreed with the repressive policies, the people of the second wave mainly wanted to avoid being drafted into the army .

Although Russian has since become more common on Georgian streets and some new Russian shops have opened, the country's neighbors are not very welcoming. Georgia has been on Ukraine's side since the start of the war. For many citizens, the presence of the Russians brings back memories of the 2008 Russian-Georgian war.

Overall, the Georgian government, led by the Georgian Dream party, sees new economic opportunities in immigrant Russians. The opposition, on the other hand, is less enthusiastic; the United National Movement party even wants to demand an 'occupation tax' of 1,000 Georgian lari (334 francs) from Russians when they enter the country.

Armenia

The small country has always been a popular destination for Russians because, like Georgia, they can enter visa-free. In addition, the Armenian capital Yerevan can be reached daily with direct flights from various Russian cities.

Armenia has undergone impressive economic development in recent decades, which the country owes in no small part to its growing IT sector. Startups and IT companies are welcomed and promoted in the country, which lies between Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkey.

However, Armenia is not able to fill all the new positions that are being created. Many qualified people still leave their home country to work elsewhere. The fact that more Russians have suddenly emigrated is a good thing for the Armenians.

Since February 2022, a total of around 100,000 Russians have traveled to Armenia in two waves. Many of them are IT specialists hoping for an attractive working environment in Armenia.

According to the ISPI, the local tech community also organized itself quickly: as early as March, when the first big wave of Russians poured into Armenia, they offered events and online groups to make integration easier for the newly arrived Russian IT specialists.

As the ISPI further writes, the influx plays a positive role in Armenia's already booming IT sector.

Azerbaijan

Unlike neighboring countries Georgia and Armenia, Azerbaijan has never been a favorite destination for Russians, writes the ISPI. The number of Russian immigrants is therefore much lower.

One reason for this is the strict visa rules, which only allow Russians to stay for 90 days if they do not have a visa. Azerbaijan is also not a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. Not the best option for people who wanted to do business in Azerbaijan.

All this means that the Russian community in Azerbaijan is relatively small, which is another disadvantage for migrant Russians.

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan experienced a wave of Russian immigrants, especially after the partial mobilization in September 2022. The ISPI writes:

In 1919, the Kazakh region was subjugated to the Soviets before becoming a republic of the Soviet Union from 1936 to 1991. A particularly painful memory of this period is the famine of 1932/1933, which killed between 1.3 and 1.7 million people (an estimated 42 percent of the Kazakh population).

According to the ISPI, the new wave of migration has led to new discussions about historical memory, language and ethnicity. Because: Russian is mainly spoken in Kazakh cities. Ethnic Kazakhs there speak little to no Kazakh (for the record: Kazakh and Russian are not related languages ​​and are therefore very different). Moreover, about 20 percent of ethnic Russians live in Kazakhstan – they have “belonged” to Kazakhstan for a long time, as they are mainly Russians who did not move to Russia after Kazakhstan's independence.

This suits the Russian emigrants: many of them explained their move to the ISPI by saying that the Russian language makes things easier. Many Kazakhs regard this attitude as imperial ignorance – even though many of them do not (yet) speak Kazakh themselves. The government has been trying to promote the Kazakh language for several years and that is why the transition from the Cyrillic to the Latin alphabet was initiated in 2017.

The Kazakh president showed last Thursday that Kazakh will not bow down to Russian. Upon receiving the Russian delegation led by President Vladimir Putin, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, to the surprise of all present, opened his speech in Kazakh:

Kyrgyzstan

Like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan was once a Soviet republic and the sudden wave of Russian immigration in 2022 is therefore equally unusual. Like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan is home to ethnic Russians. The Kyrgyz people consider these as belonging to the country. But not the new immigrants. As a Kyrgyz woman explained to the ISPI researcher:

Despite the reservations among the population, the 'new Russians' are welcomed by the government. Kyrgyzstan quickly organized special visas and even a "digital nomad" program to make it easier for Russians to arrive.

The flow of migrants usually runs in the other direction: Russia is the main destination for Central Asian migrant workers.

Dubai

For many Russian businessmen, Dubai has become a safe haven. The emirate was already a popular destination for Russians before the war in Ukraine – a trend that has only increased since then. No public figures are available, but it is estimated that around 200,000 Russians have settled in Dubai since the start of the war. In addition to the threat of partial mobilization, the business community in particular may have played a role for these Russians.

Dubai offers not only a high standard of living, but also a favorable environment for financial and trade relations. Unlike many other countries, the Emirati Federation has not imposed sanctions on Russia. Moreover, Russians can easily obtain a visa in Dubai. (saw)