Security expert warns of terror wave – also in Switzerland: ‘The jihadists in Europe are forming’

The new war in the Middle East can hardly be compared to the one in Syria ten years ago.
There are many parallels. And some differences. None of this is reassuring.

Let’s start with the parallels.
Social media played a central role in both wars. Just like during the Syrian war, the internet is currently flooded with a large number of dramatic images. Dead babies in Gaza, desperate families on the run. This leads to rapid radicalization in Islamist circles.

Starting in 2014, thousands of young men from the West traveled to Syria and joined the terrorist militia Islamic State (IS). Are there jihadist trips to Gaza now?
I don’t think so, which brings us to the first difference: Hamas does not recruit foreign fighters. And it is almost impossible to travel to the closed Gaza Strip. This is not good news for us in Europe.

Why?
Radicalized people must look for their targets here. This further increases the risk of terrorism. And something else worries me.

What?
Syria was a complicated civil war between Muslims. This time the fronts are much clearer. For Islamists, it is the most central conflict of all: Jews against Muslims.

Who in Europe is now at particular risk?
The focus is mainly on destinations that are perceived as Jewish or Israeli: synagogues, but also Jewish schools, kindergartens, shops or cafes.

Unlike Islamic State or Al Qaeda, Hamas has never actually shown any interest in terrorist attacks outside the Middle East. Is that changing now?
No. Hamas considers itself a national Islamic liberation movement and has never carried out an attack outside the region in its entire history. But that does not mean that people who are now radicalized by this conflict will not strike on their own.

So-called lone wolves.
In Duisburg, an Islamist planned to drive a truck into a pro-Israel demonstration. The investigators were just able to arrest him. Over the past decade, major terrorist organizations have actively mythologized such lone fighters. Fifteen years ago, jihadists considered it an option for losers to take action alone – without a network in the background. Today, groups like IS celebrate these types of attacks.

More about the terrorist threat

Consider an emergency

Fear of terrorist threats while traveling? This is what you need to do!

Demo, threats, evacuations

This is the situation regarding the terrorist threat in Switzerland

Left and right radicals

The federal government sees a new terrorist threat from political extremists

So the greatest danger currently comes from individual perpetrators?
Immediately. But that can change quickly. The major terrorist organizations are currently jumping on the bandwagon. They have recognized the extent of the emotionalization caused by the Gaza war and are shaping themselves. Old networks are activated and newly radicalized Islamists join them.

The Gaza War as an Awakening Experience?
Much has changed since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7. So far, the jihadist threat had actually diminished. The collapse of the IS caliphate has frustrated many Islamists. Now they have found a new topic. In the past two weeks, Islamic State channels have called for attacks in Europe for the first time in a long time.

What should the security authorities of Western countries do in this situation?
Three things. First point: you must make counter-terrorism your number one priority. Second point: Jewish institutions must be protected. This is already happening; security measures have been increased in many countries since October 7.

And point three?
Very important: Authorities must systematically investigate known threats. Many of them haven’t been very active lately. Now it is important to make it clear: what did October 7 mean for you? The secret services must nip newly emerging networks in the bud.

Are there signs that such new networks are forming?
This week I had insight into a case from Austria. A well-known Islamist threat in his late 30s was linked online to a 16-year-old who, since October 7, has felt like he now “wants to do something.” When young, newly radicalized people get involved in the old networks, things get dangerous. We must prevent that.

Are the authorities up to the task?
I am confident. They are significantly better positioned than ten years ago. We have learned a lot from the wave of terror after 2015.

Also Switzerland, where no major attacks have ever taken place?
Switzerland – which is just as at risk as Germany or Austria – has also experienced the IS era. There are now many good people working in the Federal Police Department who specialize in Islamism. Ten years ago that was not the case. That makes me positive.