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There did not appear to have been any major progress in the Ukrainian counter-offensive recently. Shortly before the expected onset of winter, the fronts appear to have hardened and there are few reports of success on either side.
But what is the real status of the Ukraine offensive? Blick answers the most important questions.
Is the Ukrainian counter-offensive over?
The Russian-appointed administrator of the Zaporizhia region, Yevgeny Balitsky (53), recently spoke of a complete halt to the Ukrainian counter-offensive. There are also increasingly pessimistic assessments from Ukraine itself, for example from the army commander-in-chief Valeri Salushni (50). For Marcel Berni (35), strategy expert at the ETH Zurich Military Academy, it is clear: “Militarily, the Ukrainian counter-offensive has not achieved its main objective. In Kiev they hoped for a quick breakthrough through the Russian lines, ideally a mechanized advance to the Azov or the Black Sea and thus a split in the Russian front. Berni is not talking about an end to the counter-offensive. But measured in terms of territorial gains, the Ukrainian counter-offensive has so far failed to live up to high expectations.
What is the personnel situation in the Ukrainian army?
The exact number of victims in the war in Ukraine is not known. However, the Ukrainian military is clearly struggling to recruit enough soldiers to defend itself against Russia. This is evident, among other things, from the announcement by Ukrainian Defense Minister Rusten Umjerow (41) that he wants to reform the military service in order to meet the personnel needs of the armed forces. Women will also be recruited, among other things. “We know very little about the number of victims in Ukraine,” Berni told Blick. “Overall, the toll on both sides is very high – the war against Ukraine is an extremely bloody war.” However, the issue of ability to recruit and willingness to serve affects both warring sides.
Will Ukraine get enough weapons to win?
Ukraine is dependent on its Western allies for arms purchases. They are constantly putting together new aid packages with arms deliveries. It is unclear whether the West is still able to supply the necessary amount of military equipment and ammunition to counter the army of Russian President Vladimir Putin (71). “That is the big question: Putin hopes for war fatigue and defeatism in the West,” says Berni. “It is becoming clear that Ukraine will be dependent on supplies from the West for a long time to come. Ukraine’s defense capacity stands or falls on it. Russia knows that.”
Does the Ukrainian leadership still believe in victory?
There appear to be increasingly divergent views among Ukrainian leaders about their own chances of success in the war against Russia. President Zelensky reportedly continues to believe in victory, while Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Zalushni speaks of a stalemate. “Zelensky as a politician must continue to spread optimism, Saluschni as a general points out the difference between military goals and means,” Berni explains. “If you look at it soberly, Saluschni is right. There is currently more of a military standoff. Although Ukraine attacked three sectors of the front in the summer, Russia managed to build up enough reserves to prepare for a local offensive at Avdiivka.
What does the coming winter mean for the further course of the war?
Cold, wind and weather are currently increasingly affecting the soldiers in the war in Ukraine. The Rasputiza, the mud season, limits the maneuverability of troops in many places. In the south, where Ukraine has been trying to divide the Russian front for months, the situation is less precarious. Berni: “The approaching rains make mechanized operations with heavy equipment more difficult – exactly what Ukraine needs now to achieve a breakthrough.” The strategy expert assumes that the intensity of the fighting will decrease, just like last winter. “But it is drier and warmer in the south, so the fighting can last better and longer there.”
Are the F-16s too late?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy (45) recently stressed the need to obtain Western-made fighter jets. The F-16 jets promised by the West will not be delivered until next year. “From a military perspective, the delivery of combat aircraft before the counter-offensive would have been necessary,” Berni said. “The lack of Ukrainian air control is one of the reasons why the offensive has stalled. But even if Ukraine soon has a limited number of F-16s, this will not decide the war overnight. Because they create new dependencies and are maintenance intensive.”
What is the balance of the counter-offensive so far?
The Ukrainian counter-offensive has now been going on for five months. “As already mentioned, the Ukrainian counter-offensive has not achieved its ambitious objectives,” Berni said. “At the same time, Ukraine repeatedly succeeds in targeting Russian supplies, logistics and command posts in the occupied territory with precise strikes. If you also look at these attacks as part of the counter-offensive, the result is slightly better. At least Ukraine has managed to force Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to withdraw from Sevastopol. “Although the Russian forces were poor at attacking in the winter, they are now proving to be very capable of defending.” Apparently, like many Western experts, Ukraine has underestimated Russia’s defense capabilities. At the same time, the effectiveness of Western weapons and their use by the Ukrainian armed forces were overestimated.
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
