Will there be a second Bakhmut? Impressions of the Battle of Avdiivka Former junta head in Guinea escapes from prison

The bomb landed next to a farm, but the detonator did not work. The moped, which weighs more than 500 kilograms, slid down the slope. The alloy wings of the explosive were torn off. They became stuck in a large hole, while the unexploded bomb only came to rest further down the valley.

But only this time, the few inhabitants of the hamlet met with misfortune. Other, no less heavy bombs exploded, leaving behind huge craters. All the houses in the small village are now destroyed or at least severely damaged, and their roofs are covered by the shock waves.

All that remained were a few soldiers and a farmer who chased us from his farm. He’s afraid our car might attract the attention of Russian reconnaissance drones. The next bomb would then be aimed at his house.

Powerless against glide bombs

One of the Ukrainian soldiers is named Igor and is the driver of an armored personnel carrier. His age is 39, but with his gray hair and wild beard he looks more like a fifty-year-old. “We are powerless against these glide bombs,” he says. “When we hear planes, some of us hide in the basement, but I’d rather die in the fresh air.”

For about a year now, the Russian air force has been using glide bombs: a mix of an old-fashioned air bomb and a kind of glider with folding wings and elevators. The wings, rudders and satellite navigation are housed in a primitive fuselage connected to the bomb with wide metal straps. This is how a cheap free-fall bomb is retrofitted into a guided missile.

The Russian pilots dropped them at high altitude. The wings then automatically deploy, causing the weapon to glide instead of free-falling. This has two advantages over conventional bombs: the aircraft can turn away from the front for a long time and thus avoid enemy air defenses. At the same time, the explosive is guided to the target with some accuracy by a pre-programmed steering mechanism.

About 30 kilometers from Igor’s village, on a small hill we can watch Russian Sukhoi-35 fighter planes drop glide bombs on the frontline town of Avdiivka. The planes fly very high and are only recognizable at first glance by their contrails. Once they have placed their load on the path, they turn around and fly back at great speed.

Only a doll protects us

In the meantime, the glide bomb is estimated to travel more than 12 miles before hitting with a dull bang, sending a smoke mushroom into the air. Many things can only be seen with binoculars.

And what does the Ukrainian air defense do? Systems like the American Patriot missiles can knock the Russians out of the sky, but the Ukrainians need these weapons to protect the capital Kiev. In contrast, most mobile anti-aircraft weapons stationed at the front have too short a range to pose a threat to the high-flying Su-35. Since Ukraine has still not received any Western fighter jets, Russian pilots do not have much to worry about.

There is a small tracked tank with anti-aircraft guns less than 500 meters behind our position, but during the air raids it remains surprisingly quiet. When we check later the vehicle turns out to be a dummy made of thin sheet steel, but from a distance of 50 meters it looks deceptively like a British Stormer anti-aircraft tank. The Ukrainians even placed a camouflage net over the pile of metal to deceive the Russians.

From the hill you can clearly see a huge factory, where about 4,000 workers used to produce coke and chemical products from coal. Now the work, the largest of its kind in Europe, stands like a fortress at the entrance to Avdiivka, a city that in its best years had almost 40,000 inhabitants.

Although the city is smaller than Bakhmut, which is not far away and has since been captured by the Russians, Avdiivka has a much greater military importance. It is the gateway to Donetsk, the capital of the oblast of the same name, which has been under Russian occupation since 2014. The two cities are only a few kilometers apart, and even from our hillside the tall buildings on the outskirts of Donetsk are visible to the naked eye.

Surrounded on three sides

Surrounded on three sides, Avdiivka acts as a thorn in the side of the Russian-occupied territories. Russia’s goal of controlling the entire Donbass remains an illusion without the capture of Avdiivka. That is why the frontline city has been disputed since 2014, and the Ukrainians have built here perhaps the strongest defense lines of the entire front. If the city falls, the route to Pokrovsk, 45 kilometers further inland, is virtually free.

Since October 10, the start of the Russian offensive, Moscow’s forces have been trying to advance in two pincer movements to create a siege ring around the city. They suffered perhaps the greatest losses since the beginning of the invasion. Images now show that the Ukrainians have destroyed up to 200 vehicles, including numerous battle tanks and armored personnel carriers. Nevertheless, the Russians continue to advance, especially near the coking plant. The only road connecting Avdiivka with the Ukrainian hinterland is in the immediate vicinity.

Drone pilots discover tunnels

We talk to a group of soldiers who are searching the area in front of our position with a large reconnaissance drone. They belong to a brigade equipped with Western equipment that was deployed in the summer as the spearhead of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south.

Now their German Leopard 2 main battle tanks and American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles are defending a Ukrainian city for the first time. The drone pilots say the Russians are trying to tunnel under the railway line that runs east of the coking plant.

Very close by is the impressive waste dump on the factory site, the largest hill in the area. It is now in Russian hands. Through the binoculars you see a red flag waving in the wind at the landfill.

Currently, the corridor through which the Ukrainians can bring supplies into the city and evacuate the wounded is still about seven kilometers wide. However, if the Russians were to capture the coking plant, the city would likely be untenable in the long term.

As grenades and rockets rain down on the Ukrainian positions west of the railway, a Leopard and a Bradley prepare for a counterattack. They run through the hamlet of Berdychi and support the Ukrainian infantry on a hill to the east. Sometimes a leopard’s muzzle flash can be seen in a poorly shot forest. After the action, the tanks immediately withdraw. It is striking how quickly and quietly the German monster can move.

Hissing and whistling

Now the Russians are increasing their artillery fire and fighter planes are tracking contrails high in the sky. They turn away gracefully after throwing off their burden. Then it takes a while before we hear a mixture of hissing and whistling. A second or two later a glide bomb – clearly visible – rushes past our position and detonates about a kilometer away. More explosions follow in the area and also in the coking plant.

When the artillery targets the dummy tank behind us and grenades fly over our heads, it’s time to leave. We try to take another look at the battlefield a few kilometers further north, but the terrain there is flat and visible to the Russians. Too dangerous, we turn around.

There is an overturned bicycle next to the road with a citizen whose foot is still entangled in the frame of the bicycle. Was the man hit by shrapnel? No blood or injuries are visible up close; the man breathes. When the translator gives him a nudge, the citizen just raises his fist, a thumbs up. The man just wants to sleep in, in the middle of the combat zone. (aargauerzeitung.ch)