What happens after the war? Five scenarios for the political future of the Gaza Strip What we know about the attack on the Jabaliya refugee camp

There has been heavy fighting in the Gaza Strip since the Israeli army declared the “second phase” of its counterattack against the terrorist organization Hamas last weekend. Israeli ground forces are apparently surrounding Gaza City in a clamp-down operation to prevent the enemies from escaping.

Vice Admiral Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military’s top spokesman, said Tuesday morning that “hundreds of targets of the murderous terrorist organization Hamas” had been attacked in “coordinated air and ground strikes.” He said a senior Hamas commander was killed while Israeli soldiers engaged in “fierce hand-to-hand fighting.”

As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced several times, Hagari reaffirmed the planned long period until the ground offensive is completed: “The coming weeks will require resilience and patience from all of us.” Meanwhile, Hamas reported on Telegram that it had victoriously repelled Israel’s advance.

International military experts have no doubt that the current operations will continue for months to come. But when it comes to the time after the desired destruction of Hamas, there is a lot of guesswork around the world.

How can Israel implement a future peace order in the Gaza Strip that promises more stability than the current one? Who should play what role? US President Joe Biden has so far unsuccessfully urged the Israeli prime minister to take a clear position on this. Netanyahu refuses, citing the war situation. In any case, in the current emergency cabinet, agreement on a binding post-war scenario would not be possible.

Under these circumstances, any future developments must remain speculation for the time being. Assuming that the war is limited to the Gaza Strip and that the feared fire does not occur, the following scenarios are at least conceivable.

Reoccupation by Israel

Late Monday evening, the disclosure platform Wikileaks distributed an official document that was first published by the Hebrew-language online medium ‘Mekomit’. In it, the Israeli Ministry of Intelligence recommends the permanent forced relocation of the population of the Gaza Strip to Egypt’s Sinai and calls on the government to “win the international community to such a step.”

In addition, a targeted campaign should be launched in the Gaza Strip to “motivate Palestinians to agree to the plan.” However, “Mekomit” emphasizes that this document is not binding and that the Ministry of Intelligence has no decision-making power. Such fantasies about the depopulation of the Gaza Strip are also widespread in extreme circles in Israel, but they are dismissed at home and abroad as unrealistic fantasies.

First, Egypt would fight tooth and nail against opening Sinai to resettlement; To prevent this situation from occurring in the first place, the government of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi continues to consistently close the Rafah crossing to Palestinian refugees.

The idea of ​​more than 2 million Palestinians in tent cities and refugee camps on Egyptian soil only arouses security authorities’ horror of new, destabilizing hotbeds of terrorism and recruitment bases for the radical Muslim Brotherhood, which is banned in Egypt. According to his own statements, US President Joe Biden has assured al-Sisi that he will not allow the population of Gaza to be moved to Egypt or any other country.

But the Netanyahu government is also ruling out the reoccupation of the Gaza Strip, which was captured in the 1967 Six-Day War and only evacuated again in 2005. At least that is what Israel’s UN Ambassador Gilad Erdan claimed in a CNN interview: “We have no interest in occupying Gaza or remaining in Gaza.”

Return to Egypt

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant recently said in the Israeli parliament that the goal was to “end Israel’s responsibility for the fate of the Gaza Strip.” This is one of the few concrete statements made by a current member of the government about the post-war period.

In Israel’s eyes, the simplest and clearest option would be a formal return to Egypt. After the end of the British Mandate in 1948, the then Kingdom of Egypt refrained from annexation, but placed the Gaza Strip under its administration, which lasted until its defeat in the Six-Day War in 1967.

Egypt is no longer considering burdening itself with the Gaza Strip again. In addition to the inevitable extremism and security problems, enormous reconstruction costs would be expected amid highly uncertain economic prospects.

Similarly, Jordan is making no serious attempt to regain the West Bank, also lost in 1967, although former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger described this as the “best solution” in a recent NZZ interview.

International government

Based on a UN mandate, Israel could transfer governance to a group of – preferably Arab – states. From 1956 to 1967, a UN peacekeeping contingent was stationed in Gaza.

According to various statements, this would be the preferred solution from the Israeli perspective. Writing in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Michael Milshtein, head of the Forum for Palestinian Studies at Tel Aviv University, suggested that Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia should restore order in the Gaza Strip and then hand over control to a Palestinian civil society. management.

What would be popular in Israel is assessed very differently abroad – also because of the experiences in Bosnia and Herzegovina. There, the United Nations High Representative, who oversees the implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement, is exposed to constant criticism from all sides and is barely able to keep Serbian radicalization efforts in check. A massive military presence in the Gaza Strip would even be necessary to prevent the resurgence of Hamas.

No third country wants to expose itself to this constant risk of escalation, especially since Iran and Syria still have their fingers in the game. It is the – to some extent self-inflicted – fate of the Palestinians in Gaza that, while expressions of solidarity are easy in sister Muslim states, in this particular case no one wants to burden themselves with their problems.

Transfer to the Palestinian Authority

So the only option left is to hand over Gaza to the autonomous authority of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas? This would be a special satisfaction for the 88-year-old, but from an internal Palestinian perspective it would be an almost absurd idea. The government, which is close to the PLO and the Fatah movement, was thrown out of the Gaza Strip by Hamas in 2007 after a brief civil war.

During these sixteen years, the people of Gaza have become completely alienated from the Palestinian Authority. Their persistently weak President Abbas is even downright hated, write the analysts of the International Crisis Group. On the other hand, the complete military defeat of Hamas, which the major Israeli attack is likely to lead to, could reshuffle the cards among the Palestinians.

Mixed forms and buffer zone

Which scenario Israel will pursue – mixed forms are also conceivable – depends greatly on the fate of Netanyahu’s government. A catastrophic outcome to the hostage crisis could herald their demise, and a successor administration could assess the scenarios differently.

Opposition leader Jair Lapid is in favor of handing over the Gaza Strip to the autonomous authority, while Netanyahu’s government was happy that Hamas and Fatah could fight each other before the October 7 terrorist attack. A split in the Palestinian camp was ultimately seen as the best guarantee of Israel’s security – a fatal misconception, as the nation learned the hard way.

Observers therefore believe it is certain that Netanyahu will expand the security buffer around Gaza after the ground offensive is completed, perhaps even by building a wall at the expense of Palestinian territory. Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen recently suggested that after the fighting there would be a smaller Gaza Strip than before. (aargauerzeitung.ch)