How Putin could use the Middle East conflict for his own benefit Wild rumors about Putin’s death – Kremlin responds

The fact that Russia has ties to the conflicts in the Middle East has been known at least since the war in Syria. But the Kremlin is also involved in the current conflict between Israel and the terrorist organization Hamas.

This became clear on Thursday when Russian diplomats and representatives of the terrorist Hamas met in Moscow. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, this involved the release of foreign hostages. The evacuation of Russian and other foreign citizens from the Gaza Strip was also a problem. Iranian diplomats are also said to have been present. Israel described the meeting as “support for terrorism” and called on Russia to immediately expel the Hamas representatives.

But what role does Russia have in the Middle East? Can Putin actually be a good peace mediator – or is he even profiting from the new war between Israel and the Hamas terrorists?

Russian interests in the region are complex. The fact is: the authoritarian-led country does not classify Hamas as a terrorist organization, on the contrary. Since the Islamist Hamas came to power in the Palestinian territories in 2006, Russia has regularly hosted Hamas delegations.

Russia plays a role as a mediator

There was also no clear, public condemnation of Hamas terror from Russia. Instead, the Kremlin called on both sides – Israel and Hamas – for a ceasefire and negotiations. The Ukrainian military intelligence service HUR even accused Russia of passing weapons to Hamas. You can read more about it here.

All this hardly seems to square with the fact that the relationship between Israel and Russia has not been found to be that bad so far. Then-Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennet traveled to Moscow shortly after the start of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and attempted to mediate between the two countries.

Putin also had ties to current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. One consequence: To this day, Israel does not supply weapons to Ukraine, train soldiers, or participate in economic sanctions against Russia, as other Western states do. Putin should generally like that.

In the current conflict, Russia is trying to play a mediating role. Shortly after the Hamas attack, Russia itself entered the game. Observers believe: if Putin actually achieves success in the negotiations, he could also use this in domestic policy for the upcoming presidential elections in Russia in 2024. Despite his war of aggression against Ukraine, this could give him the impression that he is returning to the world diplomatic scene.

West could be in a dilemma

But that is only one possible side of the Russian calculation; those with direct influence on the Middle East. The other concerns Putin’s war against the Ukrainians. In light of the Hamas terrorist attack, global attention could shift further to the region and the world could lose interest in Russia’s war in Ukraine.

If the situation between Israel and Hamas escalates further, Western states will sooner or later be confronted with the dilemma of who to provide political and military resources to: Ukraine or Israel. Such a case would certainly play into Putin’s hands.

Security expert Gustav Gressel recently shared this assessment in an interview with t-online: “If a major fire breaks out in the Middle East, it could mean that Israel or Ukraine will be supplied with weapons.” You can read more about it here.

An unnamed EU diplomat told US media “Politico” shortly after the terrorist organization Hamas attacked Israel: “We hope this will not have a dramatic impact on support for Ukraine.” But much will also depend on the duration of the conflict in the Middle East. “If we really want to be a geopolitical European Union, we must be able to manage several crises at the same time.”

Russia blames the West

In all this, it is clear that Russia is likely to pursue domestic policy interests in addition to purely foreign policy interests. The Kremlin is already using the situation for its own propaganda in the country. As the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on October 7, the day of Hamas’s terrorist attack on Israel, the Kremlin tried to turn the attacks into sentiment against the West.

Several Russian actors, including former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, also blamed Western states – especially the US – for the escalation in Israel on October 7. According to Russian propaganda, the United States and its allies should have been more concerned with a “Palestinian-Israeli agreement” instead of “interfering” with Russia and providing military aid to Ukraine.

Recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, at a meeting in Tehran, accused the US of blocking the work of the international mediator quartet for years. The Mediation Quartet, also called the Middle East Quartet, consists of the UN, the US, the EU and Russia and was founded in 2002 to mediate in the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. The quartet is repeatedly criticized for its inefficiency; the last joint press release was in November 2021.

Russia could intensify ties with Iran

Since 2015, Russia has been intervening in relations with the US and its allies in the Middle East. The Russian military operation in Syria helped Syrian President Bashar al-Assad retain power. Russia’s goal at the time was, among other things, to be able to negotiate with the US on an equal footing.

This hostility toward the US and the West links Russia to another actor in the Middle East conflict: Iran. The Iranian regime is closely linked to Hamas. The attack by the terrorist Hamas on Israel was welcomed by the country’s leaders. A military adviser to spiritual and political leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called it a “proud effort” by Hamas. You can read more about Iran’s role here.

Ties between Russia and Iran have clearly been good, at least since the war of aggression against Ukraine. For example, the Iranian regime provides Russia with the Shahed drones. These are simple and, above all, cheap drones that Russia regularly uses in the war against Ukraine, for example to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure. Putin could also use the war in the Middle East to further strengthen ties between Moscow and Tehran.