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The ‘Operation of the Iron Swords’ has clear objectives, but apparently does not contain a precise exit strategy. The Israeli army wants to destroy Hamas’ infrastructure in the Gaza Strip, eliminate the terrorist organization and, it is hoped, free hostages. “What Hamas did to us requires treatment like Nazis,” Brigadier General Amir Avivi (54) explained to the media. It will probably take a few months “to clear the entire Gaza Strip. There will be nothing left of Hamas,” the Israeli said.
But what happens if the mission succeeds? What comes after Hamas? Defense Minister Yoav Galant (64) speaks about a new security reality in which Israel does not take responsibility. But he leaves open what this could look like.
The ground offensive will cause even more casualties
Since the terror attack against the Israelis on October 7, the army has been bombing Hamas bases and Israel has been continuously bombarded with rockets from Gaza. Fighting with Hezbollah in the north is increasing. Israel is also fighting Hamas and Islamic Jihad cells in the West Bank.
The collateral damage of the war is already enormous: 6,000 dead and 22,000 injured, mostly civilians, cities in ruins, more than 600,000 Palestinian refugees in southern Gaza, largely without electricity, water, food and medicine. A ground offensive would cause many more casualties and further inflame the anger of the Arab population. Iran is openly threatening to intervene.
A fire would potentially drag the US and Western countries such as Britain, France, Italy and Germany into the war. US President Joe Biden (80) has already warned Israel not to let anger control itself and not to make the same mistakes as the Americans after the attacks of September 11, 2001. He calls for more humanitarian aid and protection of the Palestinian population, and warns of an occupation of the Gaza Strip by the Israeli army.
Great concerns about the future
The dilemma is also evident at the current meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg. While EU foreign representative Josep Borrell (76) calls for an immediate ceasefire, Berlin opposes it. The second major concern is the future of Gaza. Both the EU and the US are pushing for a two-state solution.
“Israel is focusing on its punitive measures,” Walter Posch of the National Defense Academy in Vienna told Blick, “the aim is to weaken Hamas as sustainably as possible. After that, the Gaza Strip could be governed internationally. According to the Islamic scholar, Israel cannot predict exactly what that would look like. An important question is also: “Who should pay for the reconstruction?”
International security regime in Gaza
In the ARD talk show of Anne Will (57) on Sunday evening, the Israeli ambassador to Germany, Ron Prosor (65), estimated that 20 to 30 percent of the population supported the terrorist organization. Even if Hamas were eliminated, new terrorist cells could quickly form. Hatred against Israel is deep-rooted.
Middle East expert Peter Lintl (41) also wonders about Israel’s exit strategy. “I don’t think they know exactly what will happen to the Gaza Strip after Hamas is ended,” suspects the political scientist from the Science and Politics Foundation in Berlin. “Which actors would take over this new international security regime? Perhaps through a UN security mandate?”
Diplomatic solutions are now far away, says Peter Lintl. A two-state solution is hardly possible at the moment. “The latest polls show that only 30 percent of the Palestinian population, as well as the Israeli population, believe in a two-state solution.” And the Arab neighbors have no political horizon, Lintl continued. The situation is currently too bad to really have hope.
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
