Why the Polish opposition’s victory is so important Bribes accepted: Former Bank of China director arrested

The whole world is currently looking at the Middle East and maybe even a little bit at Ukraine. Meanwhile, the fact that Poland’s most important elections in thirty years took place last Sunday has gone largely unnoticed. There was a lot at stake. Not only whether the Polish constitutional state and democracy will survive. A victory for the right-wing populists would also have meant a test for the EU. But one after another:

For the past eight years, Poland has been ruled by the right-wing populist Law and Justice Party (PiS). The strongman of this party, Jarosław Kaczyński, followed the script of Viktor Orbán, the Prime Minister of Hungary.

As in Hungary, the media was largely aligned and put entirely at the service of state propaganda. There is still an independent TV station – it is owned by an American company – but it is a pay TV station, something that ordinary Poles do not want or cannot afford.

Kaczyński also ensured that the judiciary became the servant of the PiS. Independent judges were forced into early retirement or dismissed under transparent pretexts. The administration was also staffed with loyal PiS people. “Before 2015, Poland did not have perfect government, but it did have a largely apolitical one,” notes Anne Applebaum in the “Atlantic.” “Poland has now forced non-political officials into systematic cronyism.” The historian Applebaum is a specialist in the history of Eastern Europe and is married to the former Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski.

Of course, what is called ‘gerrymandering’ in America was also done on a large scale. This means that the constituencies were so divided that the PiS benefited enormously.

Of course there were also conspiracy theories. The most significant of these revolves around a plane crash in 2010. At that time, a plane carrying a Polish government delegation crashed near the Russian city of Smolensk. Kaczyński’s twin brother Lech – he was president at the time – was also one of the 96 victims.

The crash was an accident, as numerous investigations confirm. Nevertheless, the PiS used it to construct a conspiracy theory that stated that the crash was orchestrated by the Russians and covered up by Donald Tusk, then Polish Prime Minister. This absurd statement has about the same importance among Polish right-wing conservatives as the Big Lie among American Republicans.

The PiS was also involved in an ongoing dispute with the EU. Because Brussels does not accept that the rule of law is being undermined, aid funds for tackling the Covid crisis have been frozen. At the same time, Kaczyński & Co. tried. to make the old enmity with Germany a central theme in the election campaign again. Absurd demands were made on Berlin. Meanwhile, opposition leader Tusk was vilified as a so-called puppet of the Germans.

Overall, the election campaign was incredibly nasty. The PiS hasn’t missed any dirty tricks. Parallel to the elections, a referendum was held in which idiotic questions were asked such as: “Do you want to support thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa coming to us?” At the same time, this referendum allowed the PiS to spend much more money on the election campaign than legally permitted.

There is also joy in Brussels and Kiev

It was of no use. Although the results are not yet final, projections show that the opposition most likely won the election. In concrete terms, it concerns three parties that have come together to form an alliance against the PiS. Although this remains the strongest party, it has too few seats to form a government. “This is the end of the bad times,” cheers opposition leader Tusk. “This is the end of the PiS government. We made it. Poland has won, democracy has won.”

There is also joy in Brussels and Kiev. The EU is thus spared a test with Warsaw, a test that would probably have been inevitable if PiS had won the elections. The residents of Kiev can also breathe a sigh of relief, because the support of their neighboring countries is probably assured for the time being. This is very important. Robert Fico, a right-wing populist who wants to cut aid to Ukraine, recently won elections in Slovakia. Kaczyński also increasingly distanced himself from Kiev during the election campaign.

As mentioned, the results are not yet final, and because the turnout of the approximately 30 million Poles who were eligible to vote was exceptionally high, the projections should be viewed with caution.

Moreover, it cannot be ruled out that Kaczyński will try to ridicule Trump and deny the election results. He has already threatened: “There are days of struggle and tension ahead. We must hope and believe that we will continue to achieve our goals, whether we remain in power or go into opposition.”