Poland elects a new parliament: observers expect a neck-and-neck race

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Polling stations in Poland have been open since 7 a.m. Postal voting is not allowed, so voters must go to the polling station in person. Voter turnout in elections is expected to be higher than in 2019.
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Nine rockets were fired at Israel from Lebanon

According to the Israeli army, nine rockets were fired into Israel from Lebanon on Sunday. The missile defense intercepted five of the projectiles. The Israeli army returned fire and attacked the launch sites in Lebanon, the statement said.

Several cities in northern Israel were once again put on alert. Sirens sounded in the border area because of the rocket fire, the Israeli army reported. Rockets had previously been fired from Lebanon in the western border area.

3:59 PM

High attendance until 12 noon

There are signs of lively participation in the parliamentary elections in Poland. By noon, about 22.6 percent of eligible voters had cast their votes, the election commission announced in Warsaw on Sunday. The broadcaster TVN24 showed images from various cities where voters were queuing at the polling stations. In the previous elections in October 2019, more than 18 percent of voters voted in the same period.

The first forecasts on the distribution of the 460 seats in the Sejm and the 100 seats in the Senate, the lower chamber of parliament, are expected after the polls close at 9 p.m. Extrapolations are not common in Poland. The final results are not expected to be announced until Tuesday.

The main political divide in Poland, an EU and NATO country, is between the national-conservative PiS, which has been in power since 2015, and the liberal and left-wing opposition, whose largest party is the liberal-conservative Citizens. Coalition (KO). Predicting the outcome of the elections is difficult because the balance of power in parliament for smaller parties can shift by nuances of a few percentage points. A lengthy government formation is expected.

According to surveys, the Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc (PiS, German Law and Justice) party will likely remain the strongest party, but will miss the absolute majority of 231 parliamentary seats. The country would then have to rely on the ultra-right Konfederacja to form a government. The Konfederacja rejected a coalition with the PiS during the election campaign. However, many Poles see this as an election campaign tactic and assume that Konfederacja MPs with government positions will be lured to the PiS camp – or that the far right will eventually tolerate a PiS minority government.

Parliamentary elections and referendums

A change of power is also not excluded. According to the polls, former Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Citizens’ Coalition (KO) is in second place, just behind the PiS. If she wins the elections, she could form a coalition with the left-wing Lewica Alliance and the Christian conservative Third Way. However, the condition for this is that the Third Way, which consists of a merger of two parties, crosses the eight percent threshold applicable to such electoral alliances and enters parliament. Research shows that the formation is more than ten percent.

Parallel to the parliamentary elections, Poles will vote in a referendum on four questions. One of them is about the EU’s asylum compromise. This stipulates that the admission of refugees should no longer be voluntary, but rather mandatory. Countries that do not want to accept refugees would be forced to make compensation payments. The PiS government rejects this.

The specific question in the Polish referendum will be: “Do you support the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa under the mandatory admission mechanism imposed by the European bureaucracy?” The outcome of the referendum has no influence on the EU’s decision-making process. The other questions concern the privatization of state-owned enterprises, the retirement age and the barrier on the Polish border with Belarus.

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3:57 PM

The parliamentary elections in Poland in the live ticker

Polling stations in Poland have been open since 7 a.m. The country could be on the brink of a change of course. Surveys show that the ruling PiS party is still the strongest force. But the absolute majority is wavering. An opportunity for the opposition alliance? Blick informs you live about the most important developments.

End of the live ticker

The weather cooperates. No one who has been standing in line to vote since seven o’clock on Sunday morning is left standing in the rain. The sun shines in Poland with mild autumn temperatures.

Possible cold showers here and there, at least of a political nature, can only be expected when the polling stations close at 9 p.m. It concerns the division of the 460 seats in the Sejm and the 100 seats in the Senate, the less important second chamber of parliament. But who will enter parliament this time is anything but clear.

In the last parliamentary elections in Poland in 2019, 62 percent of the electorate cast their votes and the then ruling ‘Law and Justice’ party, known as PiS for short, received a comfortable majority of 43.6 percent.

Polish society is deeply divided politically

Voter turnout is likely to be higher this year, analysts say. And the outcome of the elections is more unpredictable. Reason: the aggressive election campaign of the right-wing populists and the mass rallies of the opposition have deeply divided the country.

The gladiators in Poland’s political arena are the arch-conservative puppeteer Jaroslaw Kaczynski (74) and the economic liberal Donald Tusk (66). Both former prime ministers and political stars. Kaczynski’s nationalism, hatred of Germany, restrictive immigration policies and strengthening of the Catholic Church contrast with Tusk’s openness towards the EU, the rule of law, press freedom and women’s rights.

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The PiS board loses votes

Current research shows that the PiS party is weakening. Their values ​​so far amount to a maximum of 37 percent. That wouldn’t be enough to rule alone. Incumbent Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (55) should form a coalition with the ultra-right Konfederacja. This looked diva-like in the election campaign and could blackmail key positions for a future joint government in coalition talks – despite only eight percent of the vote expected.

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Meanwhile, the leader of the ‘Civic Platform’ party, Donald Tusk (66), is optimistic about going to the polls. According to surveys, his party is in second place in terms of voter advantage with almost 30 percent. He is followed by ‘New Left’ with an expected 10 percent and the electoral alliance ‘Third Way’. Together they form the so-called ‘Citizens Coalition’. If the “Third Way” passes the 8 percent threshold, the opposition could replace the PiS government after eight years.

The first forecasts are expected after the polls close at 9 p.m. and the election results are expected on the night of October 16.

Source: Blick

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Amelia

Amelia

I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.

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